Escalating Geopolitical Conflict

Yuba Nath Lamsal:---- The world is in a poly crisis. Wars, ethnic conflicts, geopolitical tensions, economic downturn, trade wars, disruption in the supply system, cybercrimes and climate change are posing a threat to humanity. These crises have become increasingly acute over the years. However, rulers, politicians and power brokers have either miserably failed to assess the situation or simply lack the intent to address the problems for their narrow national and political interests rather than the larger cause of humanity. Instead, they are trying to exploit the crisis for political and partisan benefits. Global geopolitics keeps changing. Big powers are always the key players in global and regional geopolitics. Powers rise and fall that change the nature, course and hotspots of geopolitics. As European countries like the United Kingdom, France, and Germany were the key powers in the 19th century, Europe was the centre of international power. European countries colonised almost the rest of the world. There used to be a saying that the sun never set in the British Empire, implying that British colonies existed in almost every part of the world. However, the situation changed after World War II. Course of geopolitics World War I and World War II bled European powers both economically and militarily, which changed the course and nature of global geopolitics and world order. In the aftermath of World War II, the United States emerged as the dominant global power, followed by the Soviet Union, while the erstwhile European powers were reduced to normal or regional powers. This led to the bipolar world order, which remained in place until the late 1980s. The Soviet Union finally collapsed in 1991, paving the way for the unipolar world order with the United States remaining the only dominant global power. As the 19th century was the European century, the 20th century turned out to be the American century, with Washington dictating the rest of the world. With the dawn of the 21st century, international power politics has changed so has the world order. China’s remarkable rise economically, militarily and technologically, followed by the emergence of India and Russia, has changed the course of geopolitics and power structure. China is already second-largest economy and India the fourth one. While China, in a few decades, may be the number one economy, surpassing the US, India, given its growth pattern, is likely to be the third largest in the near future. Russia is a military power in Europe. These countries are trying to assert their role in international power politics, which has changed the geopolitics of Asia and also the world. With the rise of economic power, countries’ strategic and power ambition also grows. The newer power structure has changed the global geopolitical situation. The 21st century is going to be the Asian century, with Asian powers playing an assertive role in global geopolitics. Asia is therefore becoming the new geopolitical hotspot. Big powers always try to have their sphere of influence and they accordingly act. While powers create their sphere of influence, others try to break it and encroach on others’ spheres of influence. As China rises fast, the United States is trying to enlarge and strengthen its presence and activities in the rimland of the Indo-Pacific region, especially in East and Southeast Asia. China may have taken this as an encroachment on its sphere of influence. A similar situation may be with India in South Asia. Both China and India together may be wary of the United States’ increased presence in the Indo-Pacific region as a challenge to their sphere of influence, although these two Asian powers do not have a common strategic perspective. While China takes the US as its principal rival, India considers China its strategic competitor. India and the US have a common strategic perspective about China but India does not fully trust the US as its strategic partner and thus is not happy with the US presence in its neighbourhood, namely South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Both China and India take the US as an outside power whose presence may not be welcome in the region for New Delhi and Beijing. This is a unique strategic contradiction in our neighbourhood and Asia. Washington takes China as the immediate threat and wants to check Beijing’s further rise and enlargement, while at the same time, it may also not be happy with India’s rise. The US attempt to coax India is aimed at taking it along in containing China but Washington does not trust India as a permanent strategic ally. However, India is trying to play different games in the name of strategic autonomy. India is in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) consisting of USA, Japan, Australia and India and it has agreed a partnership of military nature, including Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) for sharing geospatial intelligence and Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement for military logistics sharing (COMCASA). Economic engagement Apart from that India and the US have also reached agreements for military exercises under different names and defence-related cooperation agreements. India has reached agreements for defence cooperation with Russia and Moscow is a key defence supplier of India. With China, its economic engagement is deepening and China is an important trading partner. India, at the same time, is in the China-initiated BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. China is moving ahead to redraw a new world order for which Beijing wants to take India, Russia and some other countries along. The BRI and other associate initiatives are Beijing’s tools to bring together countries of the Global South in the march for a new order. But the US is eager to fail China’s move, for which it seeks to strengthen its presence and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. The United States has some long-time allies in the Indo-Pacific Region like Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia and New Zealand, while Quad and AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States) are Washington’s alliances in the Indo-Pacific Region. Given these rival strategic and geopolitical moves and counter moves by powers of the day, the situation has further complicated in Asia. In this ugly geopolitical fight, smaller countries may be in a difficult position to defend their interests. (The author is a former chief editor of this daily and a former ambassador. lamsalyubanath@gmail.com) --- The Article was publiched in The Rising Nepal on October 29, 202 -- To read original article please visit: https://risingnepaldaily.com/news/70258