America's dilemma in Afghanistan
Yuba Nat Lamsal
The strategic review of the United States which was released on December 16, 2010 has revealed a big dilemma Washington is suffering in connection with its operation in Afghanistan. This makes it clearer that the United States is facing a great difficulty in completely winning the war on terror. Although Washington has claimed to have made success in weakening Al Queda and Taliban, the United States is seeking a face-saving device to wash off its hands from Afghanistan.
The success and failure in Afghanistan war is being judged by the number of casualties of American soldiers. The year 2010 is viewed as relatively successful year because the casualty of American soldiers in Afghanistan is the lowest compared to that of previous years since 2001 when the US began its military operation. In 2010, some 700 NATO soldiers including 500 Americans were killed. However, given the way the war in Afghanistan is being waged, it is more likely that Washington would eventually fall into the trap of Vietnam syndrome.
President Obama, during his electoral campaign in 2008, had promised pullout from Iraq but stronger engagement in Afghanistan to smash the networks and roots of international terrorist operatives including Al Queda and Taliban. Accordingly, Obama has sent more troops to Afghanistan following the footprint of his predecessor George Bush Jr. But no significant achievement has been made in crushing Taliban. As the next presidential election is one year away, Obama seems to be more worried that the Afghan issue would take a huge toll in his bid for reelection. Already down in popularity rating due to domestic problems including economic downturn, growing unemployment and declining power of US dollars in the world, Obama's fate now clearly hinges on how successfully and effectively he can deal with Afghan problem, Iran crisis and North Korea issue.
Some serious mistakes have been made in dealing with Afghanistan war. It is becoming clearer that the United States and NATO forces alone cannot win in the Afghan war. Obama and his security advisors are well aware of this reality. To win Afghan war, Washington may need stronger and meaningful support of the Asian allies specially Pakistan, China and even Iran. However, the United States is slowly alienating these three powerful neighbours of Afghanistan. Washington has already declared Iran as an evil state and is preparing military intervention. Already at verbal war with Washington, Teheran is not likely to cooperate with the United States. Instead, it would encourage the anti-American forces in the world. China is also involved in Afghanistan's reconstruction right now but it is suspicious over the US policy in South Asia which seems to be directed towards containing and encircling Beijing. The security partnership with India and America's increased engagement and presence in South China Sea and Indian Ocean are evident of the US policy directed against China. If this US policy continues in South Asia, China may not be forthcoming to support US war on terror in Afghanistan in the long-run. Similar is the position of Pakistan. Pakistan is currently fighting the war against terrorism and cooperating with the United States. In return, Washington has applied double standard. On the one hand it has sought cooperation from Pakistan in Afghan war, Washington, on the other, is hobnobbing with New Delhi in security matters which would ultimately be against the interest of Pakistan. The United States also wants India's increased engagement in Afghanistan, which would be Washington's big strategic blunder in Afghanistan as well as in the entire South Asia. Having already annoyed the Muslim world, the United States would face more hatred from the Muslim community by bringing India into Afghan problem because India has the worst tract record in dealing with the Muslim population after Israel. What Washington should understand is the fact that India is already engaged in Afghanistan not to cooperate with the United States but to destabilize Pakistan. The incidents of blast and violent activities that have occurred in some parts of Pakistan's North Western Frontier Province and Baluchistan province have links with Indian operatives in Afghanistan.
Obama's Afghanistan polices now seem to be wavering especially after the mid-term electoral debacle faced by Democratic Party. The Afghan war had been overwhelmingly supported by the American people in the beginning. Now more than 60 per cent American people think that war in Afghanistan is not worth fighting, which may have made American President to seriously mull over the ways to get rid of the war that is not likely to be won. Even NATO allies that have been fighting war in Afghanistan along with the United States are rethinking their involvement in Afghanistan war. Spain had long ago withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan while other NATO allies except the United Kingdom may be in the mood of following suit. The United States has a daunting challenge to keep NATO allies engaged in Afghanistan. In the summit of the NATO members held in Lisbon of Portugal in November last year, US attempted to keep the NATO allies engaged in Afghanistan by assuring that the Afghanistan operation would be over by 2014. If the US had not given the timetable of its pullout, some of the NATO allies might have announced their decision to pull out their troops from Afghanistan in 2011. Also the United States has problem in dealing with Afghan president Hamid Karzai. Washington and Afghan president are already engaged in verbal war. This is mainly because of the policy differences as Karzai wants reconciliation with the Taliban group while Washington wants their elimination.
Obama is in difficulty to balance between the US image in the world and wish of the American citizens. As a sole superpower, the United States has its responsibility in the world and thus cannot just walk away from Afghanistan without achieving its goals. Withdrawing from Afghanistan at this moment would be tantamount to leaving ground for Taliban. If the American troops leave Afghanistan, Taliban group may recapture Kabul in a period of a couple of months if not weeks. The Hamid Karzai regime is not capable to resist Taliban onslaught for long. The United States had initial plan to hand over the security to Afghan regime within the first term of the elected government and leave Afghanistan. However, this has not been possible even at the end of the second term of the elected government. Karzai regime is so weak, incompetent and incapable that it would not survive even a month once US-led NATO forces depart. This is an utter failure on the part of the United States not to adequately train and enable the Afghan troops to defend Afghanistan. At the same time, it would not be possible for the United States to deploy its troops in Afghanistan and defend the regime forever.
Given the present trend and US South Asia policy, Washington is likely to face even greater challenge in Afghanistan. Already alienating and antagonizing the neighbours, the US cannot win the Afghan war. If it has to achieve its goal in Afghanistan, it has to win the confidence and trust of the Muslim world. For that it has to work closely with Pakistan but not with India. China's support would be crucial. Washington will also have to depart from its dual policy in connection with China. Beijing is also fighting tooth and nail against terrorist activities in its Xinjiang province and Tibet. Some groups that have tried to create terror in China's provinces are believed to have links with and get financial support from organizations from the Western countries including the United States. The United States, on the one hand, is fighting a war against terrorism while it has been supporting terrorist and criminal groups to destabilize China. Similar is the case with Kashmir. The Kashmir problem is the example of violation of the United Nations resolution. India has continuously rejected the UN resolution of impartial plebiscite in Kashmir, which is a non-compliance with the international law. The United States needs to exert pressure on New Delhi to accept the UN resolution to solve the Kashmir problems through impartial plebiscite if Washington at all wants to permanently end the conflict in South Asia. The success and failure in Afghan war may have link with Iran. Muslims all over the world including Afghanistan and Pakistan have sympathy towards their brethren in Iran. If the United States deals with Iran issue more judiciously, it would give the message to the Muslim world that the United States is not an enemy of the Muslim population. There should be no shade of doubt that weapons of mass destruction (WMD) should not be destroyed for the safety of the humanity. However, there should not be double standard on this issue, too.
The strategic review of the United States which was released on December 16, 2010 has revealed a big dilemma Washington is suffering in connection with its operation in Afghanistan. This makes it clearer that the United States is facing a great difficulty in completely winning the war on terror. Although Washington has claimed to have made success in weakening Al Queda and Taliban, the United States is seeking a face-saving device to wash off its hands from Afghanistan.
The success and failure in Afghanistan war is being judged by the number of casualties of American soldiers. The year 2010 is viewed as relatively successful year because the casualty of American soldiers in Afghanistan is the lowest compared to that of previous years since 2001 when the US began its military operation. In 2010, some 700 NATO soldiers including 500 Americans were killed. However, given the way the war in Afghanistan is being waged, it is more likely that Washington would eventually fall into the trap of Vietnam syndrome.
President Obama, during his electoral campaign in 2008, had promised pullout from Iraq but stronger engagement in Afghanistan to smash the networks and roots of international terrorist operatives including Al Queda and Taliban. Accordingly, Obama has sent more troops to Afghanistan following the footprint of his predecessor George Bush Jr. But no significant achievement has been made in crushing Taliban. As the next presidential election is one year away, Obama seems to be more worried that the Afghan issue would take a huge toll in his bid for reelection. Already down in popularity rating due to domestic problems including economic downturn, growing unemployment and declining power of US dollars in the world, Obama's fate now clearly hinges on how successfully and effectively he can deal with Afghan problem, Iran crisis and North Korea issue.
Some serious mistakes have been made in dealing with Afghanistan war. It is becoming clearer that the United States and NATO forces alone cannot win in the Afghan war. Obama and his security advisors are well aware of this reality. To win Afghan war, Washington may need stronger and meaningful support of the Asian allies specially Pakistan, China and even Iran. However, the United States is slowly alienating these three powerful neighbours of Afghanistan. Washington has already declared Iran as an evil state and is preparing military intervention. Already at verbal war with Washington, Teheran is not likely to cooperate with the United States. Instead, it would encourage the anti-American forces in the world. China is also involved in Afghanistan's reconstruction right now but it is suspicious over the US policy in South Asia which seems to be directed towards containing and encircling Beijing. The security partnership with India and America's increased engagement and presence in South China Sea and Indian Ocean are evident of the US policy directed against China. If this US policy continues in South Asia, China may not be forthcoming to support US war on terror in Afghanistan in the long-run. Similar is the position of Pakistan. Pakistan is currently fighting the war against terrorism and cooperating with the United States. In return, Washington has applied double standard. On the one hand it has sought cooperation from Pakistan in Afghan war, Washington, on the other, is hobnobbing with New Delhi in security matters which would ultimately be against the interest of Pakistan. The United States also wants India's increased engagement in Afghanistan, which would be Washington's big strategic blunder in Afghanistan as well as in the entire South Asia. Having already annoyed the Muslim world, the United States would face more hatred from the Muslim community by bringing India into Afghan problem because India has the worst tract record in dealing with the Muslim population after Israel. What Washington should understand is the fact that India is already engaged in Afghanistan not to cooperate with the United States but to destabilize Pakistan. The incidents of blast and violent activities that have occurred in some parts of Pakistan's North Western Frontier Province and Baluchistan province have links with Indian operatives in Afghanistan.
Obama's Afghanistan polices now seem to be wavering especially after the mid-term electoral debacle faced by Democratic Party. The Afghan war had been overwhelmingly supported by the American people in the beginning. Now more than 60 per cent American people think that war in Afghanistan is not worth fighting, which may have made American President to seriously mull over the ways to get rid of the war that is not likely to be won. Even NATO allies that have been fighting war in Afghanistan along with the United States are rethinking their involvement in Afghanistan war. Spain had long ago withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan while other NATO allies except the United Kingdom may be in the mood of following suit. The United States has a daunting challenge to keep NATO allies engaged in Afghanistan. In the summit of the NATO members held in Lisbon of Portugal in November last year, US attempted to keep the NATO allies engaged in Afghanistan by assuring that the Afghanistan operation would be over by 2014. If the US had not given the timetable of its pullout, some of the NATO allies might have announced their decision to pull out their troops from Afghanistan in 2011. Also the United States has problem in dealing with Afghan president Hamid Karzai. Washington and Afghan president are already engaged in verbal war. This is mainly because of the policy differences as Karzai wants reconciliation with the Taliban group while Washington wants their elimination.
Obama is in difficulty to balance between the US image in the world and wish of the American citizens. As a sole superpower, the United States has its responsibility in the world and thus cannot just walk away from Afghanistan without achieving its goals. Withdrawing from Afghanistan at this moment would be tantamount to leaving ground for Taliban. If the American troops leave Afghanistan, Taliban group may recapture Kabul in a period of a couple of months if not weeks. The Hamid Karzai regime is not capable to resist Taliban onslaught for long. The United States had initial plan to hand over the security to Afghan regime within the first term of the elected government and leave Afghanistan. However, this has not been possible even at the end of the second term of the elected government. Karzai regime is so weak, incompetent and incapable that it would not survive even a month once US-led NATO forces depart. This is an utter failure on the part of the United States not to adequately train and enable the Afghan troops to defend Afghanistan. At the same time, it would not be possible for the United States to deploy its troops in Afghanistan and defend the regime forever.
Given the present trend and US South Asia policy, Washington is likely to face even greater challenge in Afghanistan. Already alienating and antagonizing the neighbours, the US cannot win the Afghan war. If it has to achieve its goal in Afghanistan, it has to win the confidence and trust of the Muslim world. For that it has to work closely with Pakistan but not with India. China's support would be crucial. Washington will also have to depart from its dual policy in connection with China. Beijing is also fighting tooth and nail against terrorist activities in its Xinjiang province and Tibet. Some groups that have tried to create terror in China's provinces are believed to have links with and get financial support from organizations from the Western countries including the United States. The United States, on the one hand, is fighting a war against terrorism while it has been supporting terrorist and criminal groups to destabilize China. Similar is the case with Kashmir. The Kashmir problem is the example of violation of the United Nations resolution. India has continuously rejected the UN resolution of impartial plebiscite in Kashmir, which is a non-compliance with the international law. The United States needs to exert pressure on New Delhi to accept the UN resolution to solve the Kashmir problems through impartial plebiscite if Washington at all wants to permanently end the conflict in South Asia. The success and failure in Afghan war may have link with Iran. Muslims all over the world including Afghanistan and Pakistan have sympathy towards their brethren in Iran. If the United States deals with Iran issue more judiciously, it would give the message to the Muslim world that the United States is not an enemy of the Muslim population. There should be no shade of doubt that weapons of mass destruction (WMD) should not be destroyed for the safety of the humanity. However, there should not be double standard on this issue, too.
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