Are China and Bhutan coming closer?

Yuba Nath Lamsal

News reports in some Chinese media concerning China-Bhutan relations gave ground for speculations and analysis to foreign policy watchers and security and strategic analysts both in South Asian region and beyond. This news also hit newspaper headlines of some international media as well. The media reported that China and Bhutan had in principle agreed to establish diplomatic relations. This news report came following the meeting of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Bhutanese Prime Minister Jigmi Y Thinley on the sidelines of the UN conference on sustainable development or Reo+20 in Rio de Jenerio of Brazil in June this year. As and when this news hit the newspaper headlines, it was taken with pleasure and satisfaction by Beijing but with indignation, caution and delighting interest by other powers and countries both in the region and outside.

China and Bhutan so far do not have diplomatic relations despite being the close neighbors and having shared common border. Bhutan is a tiny Himalayan Kingdom sandwiched between China and India.  The reason behind Bhutan not having diplomatic relationship is, perhaps, because of its position and relations with India. Although Bhutan is in principle an independent country with its membership of the United Nations and several other regional and international forums including the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), it, in practice, is a protectorate of India. Under the 1949 treaty between the two countries, Bhutan does not have independence on foreign policy and defence. Instead, New Delhi set and controls Bhutan’s foreign policy agenda and is responsible Thimpu’s defence. It is, thus, understandable that Bhutan is not willing to establish diplomatic relations with its northern neighbor China, ostensibly under pressure from New Delhi. India, despite having good and workable relationship with China, it uses and has been using some other tools or other countries against China. But China is always a good neighbor and wants to have perfectly friendly relationship with all its neighbors including Bhutan. This is the reason why China has been seeking to establish diplomatic relations with Bhutan.

Wen-Thinly meeting in Brazil is a new beginning in the history of bilateral relations between China and Bhutan. Although Thimpu has backtracked from what its Prime Minister  Thinly had promised, understandably under pressure from New Delhi, there are serious diplomatic moves under current, which would be visible in the form of announcement to establish diplomatic relations in the rear future.

These developments are indicative of the fact that Bhutan is trying to come out of Indian influence. There is a concrete and convincing reason behind it. Bhutan has lately, though ornamentally, embraced parliamentary democracy. The absolute monarchy has been replaced by constitutional monarchy, which, in principle, is just titular head and all the executive powers are vested on the elected prime minister. Bhutan now has democratic legitimacy and it has something to boast of in the international arena. Previously, the absolute monarchy sought India’s protection and support to cling on to power simply because it lacked democratic legitimacy. With having democratic set-up, it now does not need backing of any power and country for the survival of the regime. Moreover, Bhutan is now slowly trying to exercise its independence, for which Thimpu wants to come out of India’s domination and influence.

Moreover, Bhutan revised its relationship with India in 2007, which gives Thimpu a little more latitude to conduct independent foreign policy. The 2007 revision in the 1949 treaty is a small step towards in breaking with the past so far as Thimpu’s relationship with India is concerned. This is also a beginning of Bhutan’s own independent foreign policy, a break from India-dictated relationship. Now the 2007 revision has created ground for Thimpu to have bilateral relations with New Delhi on an equal footing, which was not in existence in the past.

Ever since the revision of its relationship with India, Bhutan is trying to diversify its international relations, which is evident in the recent developments in its relations with China.  A strong section in Thimpu had long been raising the issue of breaking from its India-centric policy and establishing relations with other countries especially China. This issue had been raised even during the rule of Jigme Singye Wangchuck, father of the present king Jigme Keshar. But the king did not choose to risk his power by antagonizing India. Moreover, Bhutanese people are feeling that their independent status is being reduced to a mere protectorate of India, which many Bhutanese people do not, at all, like.  Thus, the diversification of international relation is Thimpu’s compulsion but not the choice of its rulers. Even now the Bhutanese rulers may not be willing to diversify international relations because it is certain to irk New Delhi. India always wants Bhutan to remain under its foreign policy and security umbrella. New Delhi understands that diversification of its relations would slowly drive Bhutan to go out of New Delhi’s control and domination. India is, thus, using all means at its disposal to ensure that Bhutan does not have relationship with China. But it is Bhutan’s inner desire to turn towards China, which would eventually reduce its heavy dependence on India. Thimpu had, thus, theoretically agreed on establishing diplomatic relations with China. But it backed out later under pressure from India.

There are other reasons behind’s Bhutan’s desire to come out of India’s shadow and move closer to China. Firstly, it is Thimpu’s desire to exercise its independent foreign policy to stand on equal footing with all countries in the international arena. Secondly, there is a big resentment within Bhutan against India’s heavy handedness. In the name of special relations, India always tried to squeeze Bhutan—be it in harnessing water resources or building infrastructure projects. India has the monopoly over infrastructre development project contracts in Bhutan. But it has been widely perceived that the works of Indian contractors is substandard which has cost Bhutan heavily. Bhutanese media has been raising the technical and quality problems associated with Indian projects and the developmental assistance. Recently the Tala hydel project faced problems with four runners worth Nu280 million (over five million dollars) showing cracks. Also, a 500 MW high voltage cable worth Nu 40 million failed after being installed. Further, Indian projects have been reporting increasing sedimentation and design flaws in several projects. There is also resentment within Bhutan because of India centric foreign policy. Additionally, there is increasing popular demand for closer ties with northern neighbor China, which Thimpu’s rulers cannot simply dismiss and ignore.

So far as China is concerned, Beijing has always been keen on maintaining good relations with its Asian neighbors – ‘periphery countries’. The peripheral policy forms the core of China’s external strategy. Relations with these countries help to avoid external instabilities that may cause any internal frictions. China needs a peaceful and stable periphery for its ‘Peaceful Development/Rise’. Bhutan is the only South Asian country that China does not have diplomatic relations.
China has outlined its plan of extending the railway network from Lhasa to Zangmu on the Nepal border. According to this blueprint, yet another line will branch out midway from the line at Shigatse. This line will move east and go up to Yadong, at the mouth of Chumbi Valley- strategically located at the tri –junction of India-China-Bhutan.
China is willing to have good neighborly relations with Bhutan on the basis of mutual equality which is also Bhutan’s desire. But Thimpu has not been able to come out vocally due to pressure from India. Now Bhutan must make a rupture with the past in its foreign policy particularly its relations with India. The good neighborliness policy is equally in the interest of both Bhutan and China. Bhutan cannot remain aloof from outside the world in this globalized era of 21^st century. Thus, Bhutan-China diplomatic relations are the need of the hour which would not only benefit to China and Bhutan but also the entire South Asian countries including Nepal.