South Asia where US meets with China

Yuba Nath Lamsal

Two important events took place in the international arena recently, which definitely will have far reaching impact on global politics and economy. These events include Presidential election of the United States and the 18^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The US presidential election was held on November 6 in which the current President Barak Obama was re-elected. Obama’s rival conservative Mitt Romney was defeated by a slight margin in terms of popular votes. This election has given continuity to the present policy because Obama is not likely to take any drastic steps in his second term. But some new initiatives may be taken on certain issues which were long overdue for years. Economic recovery plan and immigration reforms will receive top priority of the second term of Obama presidency in the domestic front. Both of these issues will have repercussion in the world. The United States is the militarily, economically and technologically a superpower. The global economy is so closely tied with US economy that policy changes in Washington send ripples worldwide.

However, foreign policy is the one that impacts the world more than any other issue. Although not much change is expected in US foreign policy in the second term of Obama Presidency, he is likely to be more decisive and assertive with certain countries and issues. Iran’s nuclear ambition is the matter of serious worry for the United States and President Obama. The United States has been using every possible diplomatic and other means to stop Iran’s nuclear program. Washington and its allies are convinced that Iran is developing nuclear bomb, which, if materialized, would jeopardize political, security and military balance in the Middle East and North Africa. Apart from diplomatic overtures, Washington has imposed economic sanction against Iran in order to force Teheran to abandon its nuclear program. But Washington’s efforts have, so far, been not successful to completely bring Teheran to US terms. Iran has said that its nuclear programs are for peaceful purpose and it in no way is trying to use it for military purpose. But Washington and Western countries are not convinced with Iran’s logic and they are mulling some other coercive and forceful measures so that Iran’s nuclear program is aborted. The United States and its Western allies are contemplating military use against Iran. However, President Obama was a bit cautious to use force because it may contribute to tension in the oil rich Arab World that may hit supply of oil and energy to the United States and the world. Given the tone and rhetoric that President Obama has used on Iran’s current regime, Washington is likely to use force against Iran in anytime soon during the second-term of Obama administration. If US attacks on Iran and war flares up in the region, it will have negative impact on already recession-hit global economy in general and Europe and Asia in particular because these two continents are heavily dependent on the Middle East to meet their energy demand.

East and South Asia is other region which has drawn US foreign policy focus. In East Asia, the US foreign policy focus will be China. The United States and China are already in the condition of face off in East Asia. The issue that is likely to cause tension between China and the United States is territorial claims in East and South China Sea. China has already claimed its ownership over some inhabited and some uninhabited islands in the East China Sea and South China Sea, which, according to Beijing., historically belong to China. But countries including Japan, Philippines, Vietnam alike have counterclaims. If these disputed are not settled peacefully and diplomatically in time, tension may flare up, which may lead to military confrontation in the region. The United States has heavy military presence in the region and Washington has already made its intent public that if tension and conflict broke out, it will support the militarily weaker countries, which implies that US support would go against China. The US overtures have emboldened the countries of East Asia and the Pacific to confront with China. If tension flares up, this will negatively impact economy and trade in the Asia and the Pacific.

The US is more concerned with the events and development sin East Asia because this is the region hat is going to challenge Washington’s power and prowess. China has already emerged as the second largest economy, Japan is third largest economy and countries like South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and India are growing economically in leaps and bound. It has been already predicted that the 21^st century would belong to Asia and the international political power will be controlled by Asia. If so happens, the position and the clout that the United States has enjoyed will be lost. Thus, the United States has used every possible means to ensure that Asia does not rise in a way it may challenge the supremacy of the United States in the international power politics. China is in the forefront of this race to challenge the domination of the United States. Washington has, therefore, been applying all possible means to check China. Thus, Washington has adopted the policy of encircling China from all sides and weakening it so that it may not emerge as Washington’s challenger and competitor. Guided by this principle, the United States has further consolidated and enlarged its military presence in Asia and the Pacific region. Obama has declared ‘Asia pivot’ scheme with this objective, which has concerned the countries of this region accordingly and more seriously.

South Asia has emerged as a vital region for US foreign policy priority and interest. South Asia that comprises eight countries—Nepal, India, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan— is home to world’s one-fifth population. South Asia is important for Washington for strategic/security and economic purposes. During the Cold War, US got heavily engaged in South Asia because of Soviet Union’s presence in Afghanistan. The Soviet Union sent troops to Kabul and installed its own puppet regime in Afghanistan, which irked not only the United States but also the entire world. But India is the only country in South Asia that recognized and supported the Soviet-installed puppet regime in Kabul, while the entire South Asian countries condemned the Soviet aggression in Afghanistan. With the backing and support of the United States, in which Pakistan played key role, Soviet troops were ultimately compelled to withdraw.

After the end of the Cold War US foreign policy priority suddenly changed in South Asia and Washington’s definition of friends and foes also changed. The Unites States deserted the closest ally of the Cold War era, while it embraced the Cold War era’s critic as a bosom friend and strategic partner. It was because Washington’s principal enemy changed in the international arena. Until the existence of the Cold War, Soviet Union was Washington’s main rival. But the sudden collapse and disintegration of the Soviet Union, the US emerged as the sole superpower without any immediate challenger. The United States then suspected China to be the future challenger and it accordingly changed strategy with the objective of strategically containing China. Thus, the United States developed strategic partnership with China’s rivals and enemies. Pakistan was the frontline country in the fight against Soviet aggression in Afghanistan while India had backed Soviet aggressive policies. But suddenly US changed its policy to embrace India after the Cold War deserting Pakistan. This was because China and Pakistan are close friends and partners in various ways, whereas India is China’s rival in this region. India and China had already fought border war and their border dispute remains to be settled. Thus, US chose India and propped up New Delhi against China. This policy has been at work right after Bill Clinton came to the White House and it was reinforced during the presidency of George Bush junior, to which Obama, too, has given continuity.

China seems to have comprehended this US strategy in collaboration with India in South Asia. Against this background, China’s leadership has changed. In the 18^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping was elected general secretary of the CPC and is going to replace President Hu Jintao in March 2013. Having already worked as Vice President, Xi is well aware of the global situation and South Asia. Indications are that Xi is likely to accord more priority to the neighborhood more particularly in South Asia. Already heavily engaged, China under Xi Jinping intends to make significant contribution for peace, stability and development through applying its soft power image. South Asia is China’s own backyard and Beijing’s interest and priority are understandable. Partnership between South Asia and China is in the mutual interest of the countries in South Asia and Beijing. China has already expressed its intention to develop trilateral strategic partnership with Nepal and India with the objective of harnessing development potentials and contributing to uplifting the life of the people in the region. If the trilateral strategic partnership at all materializes, Nepal would be placed on a center stage and Nepal’s role and strategic significance would automatically go up. Nepal can play the role of a genuine bridge between these Asia’s two economic giants. However, this can be materialized only if similar approach was demonstrated by India. India’s response, so far, is lackluster which implies that New Delhi may not be forthcoming in Nepal-China-India trilateral strategic partnership. This could be because of New Delhi’s strategic partnership with Washington. As a result, India and the United States will further hobnob and act jointly in South Asia, which may obstruct any kind of cooperation and partnership between South Asia and China. Given these developments, South Asia is growing as the region where the US and China are likely to clash.