Asia growing as global strategic hotspot

Yuba Nath Lamsal

With the dawn of the year 2013, the world has much to be optimistic about better future. At the same time the international trends and traits make the humanity more nervous. The world saw a gloomy economic performance in 2012 creating upheavals and upsurge in the world and infuriating the people especially belonging to the middle and lower class. However, there are indications that the time of great difficulty is heading towards ease, although we cannot be fully optimistic for total recovery of the troubled economy. The Year 2013 seems to be a year of normalcy in some sector and more hilarious for many. In the economic front, days ahead seem to be little more comfortable while the political front is expected to continue to remain volatile and unpredictable.

The United States is on the recovery path from its worst economic recession as newer statistics suggest that the world’s largest economy is back on journey towards a good health. As the performance of American economy will have its own repercussion in the global economic system, a better American economy is a sign of good health of the entire global economy. China, the second largest economy, is growing satisfactory, albeit in a little slower pace than had been earlier expected. Germany, another economic power, is already bouncing back making the Euro Zone a little more comfortable and cheerful. Japan, which had been in the longest recession, is also returning to normalcy and is on positive growth path, which has already injected a moral and psychological blood and boost to the ailing business and industrial community both in Japan and in the world.

While the world is slowly recuperating from the worst economic ill health, other areas of concerns still seem to be gloomy, which is likely to deteriorate in the days ahead. The political unrests and popular resistance and upheavals are already on cards in different countries in the world. Be it Arab Spring or occupy movement in America and Europe or popular resistance against austerity in countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Turkey and even France are some of the new trends that provide greater optimism that there are chances of change in the present global political and economic system. The capitalism is being portrayed mainly by the Western powers and their lackeys in the developing world as a panacea for all the ills that the world is facing. The Western countries are pushing vigorously for capitalist system in the developing world as the best prescription to get rid of social, political and economic anomalies and malaises. In fact, capitalism itself and its economic and monetary prescriptions are the roots of all the problems and the crisis we have seen and faced in the present world. If we have to get rid of the multiple crises that the world is confronted with, we must seek an alternative to the capitalist system itself. The solution to the world’s present problems cannot be found from within the capitalist system and the present global order and a new and more human political, social and economic system and order are a must for which the people especially from the Third World must work in unison and in a collaborative and collective manner.

The resistance and liberation movements that we have seen in different forms and different manifestations in the world including the Arab Spring and the Occupy Movements are the expression of people’s utter dissatisfaction and a strong desire for change and different world order. But these movements have not succeeded to achieve the desirable goal of change for various reasons mainly in the absence of clear—cut goals, planning and vision as well as a determined leadership. As a result, the movements have either fizzled out or just become a tool of the imperialists, capitalists and rulings elites for mere regime changes. The cases of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia are evident of this miscarriage of revolution whereas the movement in other countries including Syria is also slowly fizzling out. The revolt in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt were definitely historic, which could have succeeded in bring about radical change, had there been a visionary and determined leadership.

The geo-politics determines the geo-strategic priority. The geo-strategic scenario in the world is also changing due to change in the geo-politics and geo-economic situation. The geo-politics and geo-economics are the determinant factors of the global security system. As geo-politics and geo-economic scenario is slowly shifting in the world, the global security scenario is also getting complicated and more vulnerable with global powers scrambling to have their domination and control in different parts of the world. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, a uni-polar word emerged with unchallenged domination of the US-led Western powers. But the emergence of China as economic and military power has changed the international political and strategic equation. Now the global power and security scenario has changed and keeps on changing. With China’s emergence as a global power, the West mainly the United States has felt a strong threat to its global domination. Accordingly, the United States has adopted a different strategy to contain China, for which it has already taken initiative to encircle China from all sides under its Asia Pivot policy, for which Washington is building strategic and military partnership with countries generally hostile to China. Washington’s strategic and military partnership with India and some other countries and the Pacific region can be analyzed against this background. As a result, Asia and the Pacific Region has become a global security and strategic hotspot.

 While Asia is in the top of the list of the global strategic hotspots, there are other regions, areas and countries which dominate the agenda of global security concern. Egypt is one of them.

Egypt has always been in the list of global strategic hotspots because of its location and historical legacy. Egypt is an ancient civilization and a center of Africa and the Arab World. The Egyptian revolution had been watched very keenly by the global community as developments in Egypt would definitely have a far-reaching impact in the politics and security of the Middle East and Africa. In the aftermath of the revolution and regime change, the world has watched the developments and policies to be adopted by the new regime in Egypt even more keenly and cautiously. Despite being an Islamist country, majority of Egyptian population is liberal, although not secular. Recent trends have shown that Islamism is gaining grounds among the masses in Egypt, too, because the revolution failed to achieve its fundamental goals of systemic change instead of cosmetic reform or regime change. But there is a positive side that the government and political players are against Islamization of politics. As the situation in the Middle East continues to be volatile, a stable and peaceful Egypt will play key role in the overall peace in the Middle East. Thus, the eyes of all are now focused on the developments of Egypt, on the one hand, international powers are trying to have their strong foothold in this country so that they can have their presence both in the Middle East and North Africa. Moreover, the relations between the Arab countries and Israel are often thorny and it is only Egypt that has been playing the role of mediating between Israel and Palestine. Syria is another country that has strategic significance in the Middle East. A strong wave of popular upsurge has already taken place in Syria. As rebel forces have gained ground and taken control over large swath of territory, the Assad regime seems to be in deep crisis although it continues to hold on to power. If the popular unrest further builds up, Syrian current regime is sure to crumble. Syria is an important country in the Middle East and any kinds of political developments would send ripple to the entire Arab world. Similarly, Iran is yet another country that has huge strategic significance. Iran is likely to be another zone of conflict as people’s anger is slowly building up against the Islamic fundamentalist regime in Teheran. The course of politics in the Middle East would be determined by the political developments in Iran and Syria. The matter of more serious concern for the international community at present is the nuclear ambition and programme of Iran as the world worries that there would be a greater threat of nuclear weapons to go into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists and terrorists if Iran develops nuclear arms. Thus, Iran is the focal point of the world from strategic point of view.

Due to Afghanistan problem and Kashmir conflict, Pakistan is another country of global strategic significance. The fate of war on terror that the United States and the NATO troops are fighting in Afghanistan will depend on the role and cooperation of Pakistan.

This shows that the global strategic focus is on Asia. It has already been projected that the 21^st century would belong to Asia, which means Asia would be the epicenter of global power. The fate and future of the world largely depends upon how Asia develops and stabilizes. This is a matter of both opportunity and anxiety. It is opportunity in the sense that our continent and the neighborhood would be the center of global power. It can also be the matter of anxiety because the global center of power would also bring global rivalry among the great powers. In such a situation, there can always be possibility for a small, poor and weak country like Nepal to be caught in the crossfire of strategic rivalry between the international powers. But we should always take the developments positively as our neighbors would be great powers, which is a matter of pride for us.

 

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