Can 2014 a promising year for Nepal?

By Yuba Nath Lamsal
The year 2013 has come to a close and a brand new year—2014 is with us with new optimism for a better, safer and peaceful world. One cannot predict what would transpire in the next 12 months of 2014. But on the basis of the events we saw, observed and faced during the last 12 months, it can be said that the year 2013 was twilight of joy and sorrow and accomplishments and setbacks.  Many key events took place during those 12 months which have sent both positive and negative messages having a long term impact on the humanity as a whole.

 So far as Nepal is concerned, most of the period during 2013 remained rather pessimistic as the whole year witnessed a height of instability, uncertainty and political bickering among our key political players negatively impacting on all sectors including national economy despite the drama staged for a fresh election meant for the formation of the new Constituent Assembly. After a prolonged transition for over six years due mainly to the failure of the Constituent Assembly to deliver the new constitution which had been thought to be the basis for peace and stability, it had been expected that the political forces would broker a new power deal to herald in a new kind of stability and peace in the country. However, the parties failed to act on their own and instead worked at the behest of external forces.
The decision for a new kind of mechanism to hold the fresh election to the second Constituent Assembly is particularly in point. The parties agreed to have a non-party government to hold the election despite
protest from some political parties, which proved to be the source of new conflict in the country. Although the election was held in which the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML emerged winner rendering the
earlier largest party the UCPN-Maoist into the status of distant third position with mere 80 seats out of 601 in the new Constituent Assembly, it, too, failed to instill any enthusiasm in the political life of the country. With this shocking election results, the UCPN-Maoist has claimed that elections were rigged especially after the voting process ended and prior to the beginning of the counting process. According to the UCPN-Maoist, ballot boxes were changed in cohort with domestic reactionaries and external forces after the voting process closed. However, the government, the Election Commission, the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML have dismissed the Maoist allegation and claimed that the elections were completely free, fair and peaceful without any kind of fraud. Whatever the claims and counter claims, the election is over and parties have already accepted the results.
Although the election was dubbed as a historic one to dawn a new era of peace, stability and prosperity in the country, the new power equation does not tell so and it is less likely that the constitution
would be written and promulgated within the period parties have promised. In the first place, there is a slim chance of unity and consensus among the parties on some key issues. In the absence of consensus, the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML along with some other rightist parties may try to pass the constitution with majority votes, which they have in the present Constituent Assembly. On the issue
concerning the federal model, parties are sharply far apart, The Madhes parties, although they do not have strong presence in the Constituent Assembly, would stand for one Madhes State and they may
not compromise on it simply because of their dwindling base in the Terai. Similarly, the UCPN-Maoist is championing for identity-based federalism, which is being backed by some other ethnic parties. But
the Congress and the UML are neither willing to accept one Madhes state nor the demand of identity-based federalism. This is where clash and conflict is likely to come up among the parties that may again
create the situation that failed the last Constituent Assembly. Apart from that, some parties are outside the Constituent Assembly as they did not participate in the November 19 election. Even if the constitution was promulgated, it may not be accepted by all political forces and people. In such an eventuality, a new round of conflict appears to be inevitable.
Against that background, onus lies on the parliamentary parties especially the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML to bring the disgruntled parties like Mohan Vaidya-led CPN-Maoist on board if the
new constitution is to be promulgated and peace dawned in the country. However, the CPN-Maoist has already condemned the election process saying that it was a drama staged at the behest of the external
forces. Its support for the new Constituent Assembly seems to be virtually impossible as the CPN-Maoist has already demanded the dissolution of the CA and start a new process to end the present
political crisis, which parliamentary parties are not likely to accept. In such a situation, the crisis may deepen in the country. Thus, the 2013 was the year of political uncertainty, instability and
crisis. But the 2014, too, does not appear to be promising as new round of crisis may likely to appear. It will have a far-reaching impact on Nepal’s political future as well as national economy. Already stung hardly, the Nepali economy is likely to slide downward if the political crisis was not managed and measures not taken to manage the brewing conflict that may erupt anytime in future as some parties are harping on protest for their political gains.

History is in the process of its repetition in Nepal. This is because our political parties and leader do not seem to have learnt lessons from the history. In 1996, when the then CPN-Maoist, which was later renamed as UCPN-Maoist after unification with the CPN-Unity Center, had also rehearsed similar type of political activities as the CPN-Maoist has been doing now. In 1996, the Nepali Congress was in the government with its leader Sher Bahadur Deuba in the seat of the Prime Minister and the CPN-UML was main opposition party in parliament. The Maoists team headed by Dr Baburam Bhattarai went to the Singha Drubar to submit 40 points of demand to the government as a prelude to their protracted war but it was not allowed to do so. Instead, the Maoist team was treated with baton charge in front of the Singha Durbar gate. The power equation is almost similar to that of the 1996 as the Congress is the largest party and the CPN-UML the second largest one. The CPN-Maoist is out of the present political process and there would not be its participation in the constitution making process. The demand for the dissolution of the newly formed Constituent Assembly could also be a prelude to the its already declared insurrection.

Thus, the days ahead in our political spectrum are not bright and smooth. If the Nepali Congress and CPN-Maoist make a slight mistake and if they do not take both  the UCPN-Maoist and the CPN-Maoist on board in the constitution making process, the entire political purpose would be defeated and the country would once again enter into a new round of conflict. So far as the UCPN-Maoist is concerned, it appears to be willing to play a constructive role in the constitution making process. But that too solely depends upon the behavior and attitude of the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML. If the UCPN-Maoist, too, feels alienated in the present political process due to highhandedness of the Congress and the CPN-UML, it, too, may walk out of the constitution making process, which may be followed by some other ethnic parties and Madhes-based outfits. In such an eventuality, the constitution-making and political process may be further complicated. Thus, the future course of Nepal’s politics is very complex, which needs to be dealt with caution and sensitivity. In this, the role of the two larger parties namely the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML is more important. If they fail to act responsibly rising above their petty and partisan interest, the history would always condemn them as they are primarily responsible for the last ten years of Maoist armed conflict in which more than 15,000 people were killed. If the Congress and the UML do not learn lesson from the history and their past mistakes, they will have to pay a bigger price in future. Perhaps, they would not repeat those mistakes and it is expected that the Year 2014 would see better future of the country and the people of Nepal.