Indian politics may hang in balance after election

Yuba Nath Lamsal

India will have a new government at the center either in May or early June as election to the 16^th Lok Sabha (parliament) has already been announced. Indian Election Commission has announced that the election will be held in nine phases from April 7 to May 12, in which 814 million eligible voters are expected to exercise their voting rights to choose their representatives belonging to more than 500 different political parties.

Although latest exit polls suggest a hung parliament with no single party winning the clear-cut majority, Hindu rightist Bharatiya Janta Party ( BJP) or Indian People’s Party is projected to be the leading force in the post election politics of India. BJP leader Narendra Modi is being portrayed as a new prime minister of South Asia’s leading power representing National Democratic Alliance or NDA.  The present ruling secular Congress Party of Prime Minister Dr Man Mohan Singh is likely to be an underdog to trail behind the Hindu nationalist BJP. However, things are not yet clear as the newly emerging Aam Admi Party (AAP) or Common Man’s Party of Arvinda Kejariwal is seen as a force to make a difference in the voting and result pattern of the election. The AAP, an upstart political party with staunch anti-corruption and critical of crony capitalism, has made inroad into the urban vote bank of these two largest traditional political parties of India. There are several other national as well as regional parties that will have their dignified presence in the to-be formed parliament, which will definitely tilt power balance in New Delhi’s post April 16 politics.

The BJP-led NDA is expected to be in significantly better place in this election simply because the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance or UPA government headed by Dr Manmohan Singh performed poorly especially in dealing and addressing with common people’s concerns including their basic needs food, clothes shelter, jobs, price control and good governance. During the five year rule of the Singh-led UPA government, inflation reached almost double digit especially of basic commodities, unemployment rose ever higher, and the administration was corruption-ridden.  Narendra Modi, who is tipped as the next prime minister if the BJP-led alliance won the election, is yet another factor because Mr Modi is seen by a large chunk of middle class voters, who play a determinant and dominant role in India’s politics and election, as a possible savoir of India’s ailing economy and fragile country. This was because Modi’s performance in Gujarat state in which he served two time as a chief minister. At the same time, Modi is a controversial figure with which the religious minorities often fear of being further marginalized if he at all was chosen as Indian’s new prime minister.

The loss of Congress-led alliance is a foregone conclusion but it cannot be said with certainty how many seats the Congress will lose and how many the BJP-led coalition will gain. As Prime Minister Manmohan Sing has already expressed his desire to stay out of politics after the election, it will be a big setback to Congress general secretary and an inheritor of India’s political Nehru-Gandhi family, Mr Rahul Gandhi, who is the prime ministerial candidate, if the Congress-led UPA at all emerged the winner.  The election is, thus, a Rahul versus Modi show.  But it is certain that there will not be a single party government but a coalition one in which pull and push factor of small and regional parties will play a key role in the stability of the new government and national politics of India.

If BJP-led alliance won the election and Modi was elected as the next prime minister, New Delhi would take more rightist and hawkish policy when it comes to foreign and security policy. Modi is a kind of breed who often criticizes Congress policy on Pakistan and China and champions tough stance against its neighbors. This may lead to possible tension between India and its neighbors especially China and Pakistan that may also seriously wreck peace in Asia and more particularly in South Asia. As a proponent of stronger policy and stance against China, Modi’s policies more often converge with that of the United States of America when it comes to China, which may bring New Delhi and Washington closer in a mission to contain and encircle China. In other words, there will be strong likelihood of new kind of security and strategic partnership between the United States and India meant to checkmate China.

India tends to claim to be the largest democracy because the largest number of people participate in the election. But not all people vote during the election and choose their representatives. India is a country with the largest number of poor people in the world and these poor people are illiterate and unable to make an informed choice. Thus, the election results may not necessarily represent the genuine voice of the people and ensure their true representation. In areas where people are poor and illiterate especially in the north, votes are often bought and rigged denying the people of their representation and voice in the governance.  This has made Indian people disillusioned about their political system and compelled them to look for other and alternative methods and models to have their voice heard in the decision-making and political process. This may be one reason why insurgencies of various kinds have taken place in different parts of India. Acknowledging this, India’s former chief election commissioner TN Seshan, trying to establish a link with election fraud and Kashmir’s insurgency, has said, “an instance could be drawn from the 1972 election in Kashmir , which were rigged and as a result, many of the local youths, disillusioned by the unrepresentative political process, turned towards arms for political salvation”.

Election is not merely an event but a process to empower people, enable them to exercise their rights and have them access to adequate food, housing and health care system. But Indian election is just once in five year showcase event that is held to gain legitimacy in the international arena but not to empower its own people.  Thus, a large section of Indian people have no faith on Indian democracy and political system and do not participate in election, which is why people have launched insurgencies in various parts, provinces and states including Kashmir, Nagaland, Manipur, Assam, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh. Despite this, parliamentary elections are being held in India, whose preliminary trends are indicative of the nature that the election results are more likely to send a message of susceptibility to its neighbors while giving further rise to disillusion among its own people back home.