Russia poised to win diplomatic war with the West
Yuba Nath Lamsal
A new cold war that has recently brewed between the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russian Federation seems to have taken a new turn in the international balance of power. The tough measures adopted by Western countries especially the United States gradually waning and Western countries seem to be softening their stance mainly due to the new geo-political, strategic and economic reality.
This comes after the United States partially lifted economic sanctions on Cuba and announced normalization of relations with Havana. At the same time, US stance and policy on Iran, too, seems to be taken a new shift as Washington is seeking support and cooperation of Iran on war against ISIS in Syria and Iraq. These developments are indicative of the fact that there is no permanent enemy in diplomacy and what is permanent is national interest.
With new turns of events emerging in the international arena, the Western countries mainly European states are keen to lift sanction on Russia and normalize relations with Moscow. After Russia's annexed Crimea in March 2014 following a ‘ referendum’, the United States and the EU imposed sanctions on Russia and have kept tightening it. They not only banned economic and trade relations and cooperation with Russia but have also blacklisted some firms and companies that had done businesses with Russia in the past. The sanction particularly targeted Russia's state finances, energy and arms sectors, which are either run as public sector companies or owned and managed by the powerful elites close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Exports of equipment for military use in Russia and all other EU-Russia arms deals are banned. Similarly the EU has decided not to export any kind of technology.
The sanctions also targeted some individual businessmen and private companies that were involved in different kind of dealings with Russia. Their assets were frozen in European countries crippling them to continue their businesses. Apart from ban on business dealing with Moscow, the EU countries also announced travel ban which barred individuals from making even pleasure trip to any parts of Russian Federation even if a person is in transit. They would be placed on a visa blacklist.
The Western section has definitely hurt Russian economy but not as badly as the West had expected. Despite Western countries’ decision to impose sanction against Russia, big economies like China, India, Brazil and others ignored the call and continued their economic partnership and cooperation, which kept Russian economy floating. Most importantly, Chinese cooperation and partnership has helped Russian economy to survive. Had China not come to the rescue, Russian economy might have collapsed by now.
As anti-Russian sanctions announced by the West are not working as effectively as they were expected, some NATO members themselves have begun to call for relaxing the embargo and start new partnership and cooperation with Moscow as their economies are closely tied with Russian economy and Moscow’s gas supply. This issue has started beginning to bother some politicians and public quarters around the world. Even general people are increasingly opposed to the sanction. Only recently, a large number of German people took to streets in Berlin demanding an end to war-mongering remarks of German Chancellor Angela Markel and other leaders clearly referring to economic sanction on Russia. The protesters even adopted a petition criticizing German government’s policy of confrontation with Russia.
The issue of Crimea is still a subject of debate in the international discourse. Many think that it was against international law to annex territory of a neighboring country but there are still many who believe that Russia did not annex it instead Crimean people themselves chose to join Russia. As debate continues to rage, only history will settle the accounts. One thing is sure that Crimea has now become a part of Russia. The Western countries that spat venom on Russia and took tough measures against Russia are slowly giving up their stance and position. This may be a diplomatic victory of Russia but the issue will continue to remain as the subject of dispute and debate. Now European countries are desirous to restore relations with Russia because they think that their own national interest is more important than their support to Ukraine. Russia is important for European countries for number reasons as sections are likely to hurt European countries more than it hurts Russia. In the list of European countries that want to lift sanction and normalize relations with Russia are Italy, Bulgaria, Belarus, Hungary, Austria, Spain and even Germany.
In Asia Japan initially joined the chorus of Western countries on Crimea issue. But it has recently come to realize that decision to join anti-Russian camp in general and sanction in particular was Tokyo’s mistake. Now BRICS nations are reaping benefit whereas China has filled the vacuum left due to the sanction of Western countries in Russia. China and Russia have even signed currency swap deal under which they can trade in their own currencies instead of dollars. Western countries are increasingly worried with this new development and scenario as sanction has helped further consolidate partnership and cooperation among the BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
This is not economic issue alone but partnership between Russia and China as well as between Russia and other BRICS countries has security and strategic dynamics which has worried NATO members because Russia-China partnership is certainly going to change the international balance of power and marked a tectonic shift in the international power. This is a beginning of paradigm shift of international power from the United States to Asia. This is perhaps the reason why the United States under Obama presidency has focused more on Asia and wants to have stronger presence in Asia especially in East Asia. This is mainly aimed at checkmating China from expanding and enlarging its influence in the region and also possibly to break Russia-China partnership.
One can see two parallel trends in the international arena when it comes to Russia’s role and relations with the West. One strong phenomenon is Washington’s pursuit of piling pressure on countries in the world in general and Europe in particular to curtail cooperation with Russia, whereas the BRICS countries are ganging up against US-led Western domination. Some of the countries in Europe seemed to have joined anti-Russia camp under duress without calculating long-term consequences. As countries have slowly started realizing the inherent flaw in the decision taken in haste, the sanction is likely to fizzle out marking a new and changed international balance of power.
Some even predicted that Crimea development would mark the beginning of the Third World War. But their predictions have turned out to be false as situation has already returned to normalcy. However, the question remains: Is it justifiable for a powerful country to intervene and take over territory of a weaker neighbor? There is no shade of doubt that all countries, big or small, powerful and weak, must respect international laws and treat the countries equally. There should by no means double standard in the definition of international law, sovereignty and independence. All countries in the world are equal and sovereign, despite their physical, economic and military size and strength. International law should prevail in dealing with international issues and relations between countries.
A new cold war that has recently brewed between the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russian Federation seems to have taken a new turn in the international balance of power. The tough measures adopted by Western countries especially the United States gradually waning and Western countries seem to be softening their stance mainly due to the new geo-political, strategic and economic reality.
This comes after the United States partially lifted economic sanctions on Cuba and announced normalization of relations with Havana. At the same time, US stance and policy on Iran, too, seems to be taken a new shift as Washington is seeking support and cooperation of Iran on war against ISIS in Syria and Iraq. These developments are indicative of the fact that there is no permanent enemy in diplomacy and what is permanent is national interest.
With new turns of events emerging in the international arena, the Western countries mainly European states are keen to lift sanction on Russia and normalize relations with Moscow. After Russia's annexed Crimea in March 2014 following a ‘ referendum’, the United States and the EU imposed sanctions on Russia and have kept tightening it. They not only banned economic and trade relations and cooperation with Russia but have also blacklisted some firms and companies that had done businesses with Russia in the past. The sanction particularly targeted Russia's state finances, energy and arms sectors, which are either run as public sector companies or owned and managed by the powerful elites close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Exports of equipment for military use in Russia and all other EU-Russia arms deals are banned. Similarly the EU has decided not to export any kind of technology.
The sanctions also targeted some individual businessmen and private companies that were involved in different kind of dealings with Russia. Their assets were frozen in European countries crippling them to continue their businesses. Apart from ban on business dealing with Moscow, the EU countries also announced travel ban which barred individuals from making even pleasure trip to any parts of Russian Federation even if a person is in transit. They would be placed on a visa blacklist.
The Western section has definitely hurt Russian economy but not as badly as the West had expected. Despite Western countries’ decision to impose sanction against Russia, big economies like China, India, Brazil and others ignored the call and continued their economic partnership and cooperation, which kept Russian economy floating. Most importantly, Chinese cooperation and partnership has helped Russian economy to survive. Had China not come to the rescue, Russian economy might have collapsed by now.
As anti-Russian sanctions announced by the West are not working as effectively as they were expected, some NATO members themselves have begun to call for relaxing the embargo and start new partnership and cooperation with Moscow as their economies are closely tied with Russian economy and Moscow’s gas supply. This issue has started beginning to bother some politicians and public quarters around the world. Even general people are increasingly opposed to the sanction. Only recently, a large number of German people took to streets in Berlin demanding an end to war-mongering remarks of German Chancellor Angela Markel and other leaders clearly referring to economic sanction on Russia. The protesters even adopted a petition criticizing German government’s policy of confrontation with Russia.
The issue of Crimea is still a subject of debate in the international discourse. Many think that it was against international law to annex territory of a neighboring country but there are still many who believe that Russia did not annex it instead Crimean people themselves chose to join Russia. As debate continues to rage, only history will settle the accounts. One thing is sure that Crimea has now become a part of Russia. The Western countries that spat venom on Russia and took tough measures against Russia are slowly giving up their stance and position. This may be a diplomatic victory of Russia but the issue will continue to remain as the subject of dispute and debate. Now European countries are desirous to restore relations with Russia because they think that their own national interest is more important than their support to Ukraine. Russia is important for European countries for number reasons as sections are likely to hurt European countries more than it hurts Russia. In the list of European countries that want to lift sanction and normalize relations with Russia are Italy, Bulgaria, Belarus, Hungary, Austria, Spain and even Germany.
In Asia Japan initially joined the chorus of Western countries on Crimea issue. But it has recently come to realize that decision to join anti-Russian camp in general and sanction in particular was Tokyo’s mistake. Now BRICS nations are reaping benefit whereas China has filled the vacuum left due to the sanction of Western countries in Russia. China and Russia have even signed currency swap deal under which they can trade in their own currencies instead of dollars. Western countries are increasingly worried with this new development and scenario as sanction has helped further consolidate partnership and cooperation among the BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
This is not economic issue alone but partnership between Russia and China as well as between Russia and other BRICS countries has security and strategic dynamics which has worried NATO members because Russia-China partnership is certainly going to change the international balance of power and marked a tectonic shift in the international power. This is a beginning of paradigm shift of international power from the United States to Asia. This is perhaps the reason why the United States under Obama presidency has focused more on Asia and wants to have stronger presence in Asia especially in East Asia. This is mainly aimed at checkmating China from expanding and enlarging its influence in the region and also possibly to break Russia-China partnership.
One can see two parallel trends in the international arena when it comes to Russia’s role and relations with the West. One strong phenomenon is Washington’s pursuit of piling pressure on countries in the world in general and Europe in particular to curtail cooperation with Russia, whereas the BRICS countries are ganging up against US-led Western domination. Some of the countries in Europe seemed to have joined anti-Russia camp under duress without calculating long-term consequences. As countries have slowly started realizing the inherent flaw in the decision taken in haste, the sanction is likely to fizzle out marking a new and changed international balance of power.
Some even predicted that Crimea development would mark the beginning of the Third World War. But their predictions have turned out to be false as situation has already returned to normalcy. However, the question remains: Is it justifiable for a powerful country to intervene and take over territory of a weaker neighbor? There is no shade of doubt that all countries, big or small, powerful and weak, must respect international laws and treat the countries equally. There should by no means double standard in the definition of international law, sovereignty and independence. All countries in the world are equal and sovereign, despite their physical, economic and military size and strength. International law should prevail in dealing with international issues and relations between countries.
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