Are India, China Coming Closer?

 Yuba Nath Lamsal

In his maverick style, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar recently said, “The Asian Century will be difficult if India and China don’t come together”. Soon after Indian minister’s remarks, Wang Wenbin, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said: ‘If China and India do not advance, there cannot be an Asian century’. This convergence of opinion of the two Asia’s giants signifies the necessity of closer cooperation between India and China for peace, stability and common prosperity of Asia. 

Asia is the earth’s largest and most populous continent consisting of 30 per cent of earth’s landmass and 60 per cent of world’s population. In a way, even Europe may not be called a separate continent as there is no water separating Europe from Asia. Europe is an extension of Asia or vice versa. The word continent originated from Latin word terra continens, which means continuous landmass. It would, thus, be wise to call Europe and Asia as a single continent -- Eurasia. 

Strategic race

Alfred Thayer Mahan, a sea power theorist, says ‘whoever controls the Indian Ocean, will dominate Asia’. Given Asia’s geopolitical prominence, whoever controls Asia controls the world. This strategic vitality has made the Indian Ocean an epicentre of international power projection further elevating the geopolitical prominence of countries in the region including India. International powers are, thus, scrambling to coax and take India into their fold seeking to have upper hand in the global strategic race.

In the words of Napoleon Bonaparte, ‘China is a sleeping giant’. Once it wakes up, according to Napoleon, China ‘will shake the world’. China is, thus, a historic power. But its power diminished over the last 200 years due to external invasion and occupation, which China calls a ‘national humiliation’.  With the dawn of 21st century, China has risen again, which, indeed, has shaken the world. United States and Western powers have got so much obsessed with what Chinese president Xi Jinping calls as China’s ‘great rejuvenation of Chinese nation’ that they have focussed their entire strategy and energy on containing China. If China alone can shake the world, what would happen when India and China join hands in this geopolitical contest? 

The Asian Century is the connotation first used by Deng Xiaoping when he met with the then Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in Beijing emphasising the need for greater partnership between China and India. The vision and concept of Asian Century is coming to reality decades after the two leaders visualized in 1988. Now the Asian Century phrase is on everybody’s tip of tongue and its practical and early realisation may depend how the Asian powers, more particularly India and China, cooperate and behave. 

India and China are two great powers of Asia sharing a long and contested border. They are both partners and rivals. They have common as well as divergent interests on several regional and international issues. Both the countries are ancient civilizations. At times, China and India were prosperous countries while Europeans were in the impoverished state. China and India combined accounted for more than half of the global GDP until early 17th century with Asia being the greener pasture for Europeans. In course of time, the same Europeans who came to Asia to make their fortune colonised the vast landmass of Asia including India and China.

Europeans prospered by robbing off the wealth and resources while rendering the Asian countries poor and backward. But things have changed recently and Asians are coming up in leaps and bounds. Karl Marx once said, “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce”, while according to Mark Twin, “history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes”.  Now Asia is creating history neither what communist guru Marx said as farce nor has it merely rhymed. Asia is now resurging and creating a new history of what Indian-American geopolitical analyst Parag Khanna says ‘Asianisation of Asia”.

With the dawn of 21st century, global geopolitical dynamics has seen a marked shift. This shift is from US-European axis to Asia due mainly to the economic growth accompanied by demographic and other dynamics. Asia’s growth is phenomenal. Japan was once an economic super power and now is the third largest economy. China is the second largest economy and poised to be the largest one in a few years. Given China’s growth trend, China’s rise is unstoppable in the race of global leadership. 

Similarly, India is the fifth largest economy, while other countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Singapore alike are rising fast and firmly. In total, Asia alone accounts for almost half of the total global GDP. In all accounts, Asia is on the top list. Thus, the 21st century is definitely going to be the Asian Century. Be it a mere coincidence or spontaneous, the identical tone and tenor of China and India exhibit the reality and their inner intent illustrating the possibility of cooperation between them. But their hyper nationalist ego and predatory realism may not allow it to happen in near future. 

Mistrust

The problem lies in their historical perception. The trajectory of India-China relations is characterised more by mistrust and susceptibility than by convergence and cooperation except in a brief period of Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai of 1950s. International relations analyst Kanti Bajpai in his book ‘India Verses China’ says the most serious problem between India and China is mutual perception and power asymmetry. According to Vajpai, China sees itself as a ‘great power with no pair except the US’, while viewing India as a smaller neighbour. India suffers from inferiority syndrome and thinks China is too powerful and New Delhi seeks alliance with the third power to contain China. Guided by this negative perception, India and China choose one’s rival as another’s ally. But the circumstances on the ground require these two Asian powers to cooperate for their own interests as well as for the broader peace and prosperity of the entire region burying their old hatchet.  


(The author is former ambassador and former chief editor of this daily. lamsalyubanath@gmail.com)

 

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