Global Powers Scramble For Dominance

 Yuba Nath Lamsal

International politics is the projection of national power. Parties and politicians seek to gain political power at home, maintain and enlarge it, so do the countries in the international level. Countries that possess necessary capabilities to project and assert power in the international level tend to be hegemonic. This is the nature of state power in the international relations. Greater the power and capability, the more hegemonic and assertive they become. This is the phenomenon of international power politics.

Great power competition is the natural phenomenon, which has been in practice right from the dawn of civilisation. In the race of power projection, some powers, in the course of time, lose their relevance and get thrown into the pit of history, while new ones ascend in the global theatre. This is the process of rise and fall of great powers.  The rise of China is a part of this reality. China’s rise is thus the most important phenomenon of the 21st century’s world order. China is not only rising but asserting in the international system making its presence ever stronger and more visible. 

Polarisation 

With the world getting yawningly polarised into two camps, the United States and China are apparently at diplomatic warfare to have geopolitical and strategic pre-eminence. While the United States is aggressively offensive with building alliances, chalking out strategies one after another aiming for China containment, Beijing is busy building a diplomatic defensive wall. These diplomatic hustles and bustles of the two powers remind of the post-World War II scenario in which the world had seemingly been caught in the cross-fire of international power politics of two big powers. China says its rise is peaceful. But time will tell how long it will remain peaceful. One thing is certain that Asia is becoming a dangerous place as the two power blocs compete for dominance. 

While US is solidifying alliance systems both in Europe and Asia, China, too, is trying to lure European and Asian nations with its tools at hand. The recent China-brokered deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a message that Beijing’s clout is growing not only in the economic and trade realm but also in the diplomatic sphere as international peace maker, thereby, enhancing China’s credibility and trust among countries in the Middle East and North Africa region.  It was a definitely a setback to US. 

Similarly, China-Russia rapprochement and deals sealed during President Xi Jinping’s Moscow visit was yet another Beijing’s diplomatic manoeuvre in an attempt to push Washington into the brink. Xi-Putin agreements, and their body language point to the beginning of a new alliance system and world order. This also point to the other fact that the world seeks Beijing to play negotiating role to end Ukraine war and make peace in Europe, otherwise US sphere of influence.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s comments makes it clear as he says ‘any Ukraine peace talks must focus on creating a new world order’.

The recent flurry of visits to Beijing by some key European leaders and officials also tell the tale of shifting global balance of power. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited China last November. Then came Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s visit to China followed by European Council president Charles Michel. Only last week French President Emmanuel Macron accompanied by European Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen made an official trip to Beijing. Their talks with Chinese leaders were basically focused on economic issues but geopolitical issues, including Ukraine war also figured. At a time when United States was effortful in isolating China and strangulating China economically, the caravan of visit by European leaders signifies the enhanced role of China.  

Europe and China have differences over Ukraine war. While Europe was supporting Ukraine militarily against Russia, China has adopted neutral position.  Similarly, China and Russia also have differences on multiple issues. But Russia and China are in one place —that is to alter the US-led world order and create a new one. China is already a big power and Russia is also trying to revive its Soviet era’s glory. So strong Russia may not be in China’s long-term interest. Beijing and Moscow appear closer in the stand-off with the West on some issues. But this bonhomie is a marriage of convenience which may live short. 

Moreover, these two countries fought border war in the past and have history of animosity especially after Nikita Khrushchev’s rise to power in 1976 till the collapse of Soviet Union. The early end of Ukraine war may, thus, not be the core concern of China. The reasons are threefold. In the first place it is in the interest of China if both the West and Russia continue to remain occupied in war. Second, China has benefitted from Ukraine war as it has bought Russian energy at much cheaper price. Third, the prolonged war in Ukraine may create division between US and Europe. The phenomenon is already visible. Some shorts of fissures have erupted within NATO countries. 

Strategic autonomy

France and Germany have come vocally for Europe’s strategic autonomy and lesser dependence on United States for European security. French President Macron said openly ‘Europe must reduce its dependency on the United States and avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the US’. Germany, too, shares similar views. The United States too, may not wish to see early end of Ukraine war because it is in the interest of Washington to keep Moscow engaged in war for longer time. Thus Ukraine war is less likely to end soon because both the great powers want to see it prolonged out of which they want to extract strategic and geopolitical benefits. 

The sheer loser in the Ukraine war is Russia as its strategy badly backfired. While Moscow invaded Ukraine to prevent Kyiv from joining NATO, another Russia’s important neighbour, Finland, hastened to join it and Sweden will be the next European country to be the part of western military alliance. Georgia, too, is waiting an opportune moment to go Finland way. This is what great power politics of the 21st century is. 

(The author is former ambassador and former chief editor of this daily. lamsalyubanath@gmail.com)

Published in The Rising Nepal on April 12, 2023

https://risingnepaldaily.com/news/25273