Bi-polar World Better For Power Balance

 Yuba Nath Lamsal

French anthropologist and historian Emmanuel Todd says “Third World War has started”. Todd, in his book “The Third World War Has Started”, says “United States is already waging the World War Three”. His assertions are based on the two premises. One is the Ukraine war and its worldwide ripples. The other is the economic warfare the United States has announced against Russia and China. According to him, many countries are in a way or the other involved in the war.  Russia and Ukraine are physically face to face on the battleground, whereas several countries are fighting proxy war.

Economically, the war is tougher and wider as the entire world has suffered from its consequences like disruption in the supply chain, energy crisis and rising inflation.  The economic sanction that the United States and Western countries have slapped against Russia has sent further shockwaves worldwide. The number of countries that are engaged in this war is higher than the number of countries that participated in the Second World War. The Second World War was basically European war but only Japan from Asia and United States from the American continent took part. 

Ukraine weakness

In the Ukraine war, the United States and most of the European countries including EU members as well as their allies in other continents have sided with Ukraine providing money and material support to Ukraine, while many countries in the world extends moral support to Kiev. A few countries still support Moscow while some maintain neutral position. In the issue of justice and injustice, being neutral is tantamount to siding with injustice and perpetrators. It is true that rulers in Kiev were less sensitive towards the security concerns of its powerful neighbour Russia as they decided to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which Moscow thought as a move to bring enemy troops at its doorstep. That was Ukraine’s fundamental weakness and mistake in handling foreign and security policy.  

A country, big or small, needs to pay due attention neighbour’s concerns and act accordingly which alone could create conducive atmosphere for friendly neighbourhood policy and also an environment for cooperation. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy failed to understand this reality and instead provoked the powerful neighbour while trying to appease the United States and Western powers. However, it was blatant mistake on the part of Moscow to invade the small and weaker neighbour, in a way Russia did in Afghanistan in 1979, United States invaded Panama in 1989 and Granada in 1983, Vietnam did in Cambodia in 1978 and Saddam Hussain’s Iraq did in Kuwait in 1990. 

The attack and invasion in any other country under any pretext can never be justified. Russia’s act is blatant violation of international laws and UN Charter. Russia should not have resorted to military action against the smaller and weaker neighbour and instead it could have used diplomacy and other peaceful means to sort out the issue. Ukraine-Russia standoff could have been settled in way Cuban missile crisis was resolved. United States and the Soviet Union were close to nuclear confrontation, when Moscow started deploying its ballistic missile system in Cuba in 1962. However, the crisis was averted peacefully and diplomatically as Russia agreed to withdraw its missiles from the Cuba while the United States assured not to invade Cuba and agreed to remove American Jupiter missiles from Turkey.  

Ukraine conflict appears to be further escalating, as both sides are not ready to back out. It is existential and sovereignty issue for Ukraine whereas for Russia it is the issue of prestige. However, Ukraine’s moral is high because the greater majority of world community is at its side. Russia is caught in the quandary and it can neither overrun Ukraine nor can come out of it. If war further prolongs, Russia may seek a face saving device in order to come out of the war. Since some powers like China and India have stayed out of this conflict and demonstrated neutral stance, these countries can play the role of mediators to bring Moscow and Kiev into the negotiating table and seek an amicable way out. 

War is something which cannot be won but both warring sides lose. It is the diplomacy alone that ensures a win-win for conflicting parties. Thus, there is no alternative to diplomacy. War begins when diplomacy fails. Russia and Ukraine did not try diplomacy to sort out their differences and settle the problem. Instead, both sides went to two extremes that led to rise of present situation from which both sides have incurred great loss in the form of human casualties as well as collateral damage and have paid greater economic price. 

Geopolitical game

Ukraine conflict is the consequence of broader geopolitical game. The unipolar world is crumbling and a new world order looms large. China and Russia have emerged as new powers of the 21st century challenging Washington’s dominant role in the global politics. American scholar Graham Alison has coined the word ‘Thucydides’ Trap’ and says when the rising power challenges the existing superpower, the result is war.  The international scenario is exactly what Alison says.  US strategy has been to weaken and contain these two emerging powers and maintain its dominant role. Washington has, thus, succeeded in engaging Russia in the protracted war. The war will bleed Russian economy and its resources. 

Moscow is compelled to concentrate all its attention and means in Ukraine war and will not be able to look beyond in the Western Europe and Asia. Now United States can concentrate its entire strength and attention in Asia seeking to contain China. Once it succeeds to manage China, US dominant role will remain unchallenged for at least another few decades. However, given China’s impressive economic, military and technological growth, US may find tough time to check Beijing. China is set to rise as a global superpower and bipolar world appears imminent. The unipolar world creates hegemonic order while multi-polar world leads to chaotic order, which may be a recipe for more conflicts and ultimately the Third World War.  Thus, bi-polar world order is better for balance of power and prevent yet another world war. 

(The author is former ambassador and former chief editor of this daily. lamsalyubanath@gmail.com)

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