Asia Becoming Geopolitical Hotspot

 Yuba Nath Lamsal

Ray Dalio, in the book ‘Principles of Changing World Order’ says “no system of government, no economic system, no currency, and no empire lasts forever.”  Empires do not reign forever. The world is constantly changing and evolution is the law of nature. Change is continuous process and it happens in the geopolitics and international politics as well. 

Roman, Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian, Japanese, Mongolian, Mugal, Maurya and several other empires, which once appeared invincible, were finally dumped into the heap of history giving rise to new powers. Such is the phenomenon of history. In the similar fashion, the present world order, too, is likely to fall and a new one will replace it. 

Trends are already visible to give birth to a new world order. However, uncertainty reigns supreme as to when this will happen and what exactly the new world order would look like. Empire or superpower is the term that symbolises military, economic and technological superiority. Power comes with wealth. When a country gains more wealth it invests more in military and technology through which it achieves more power and becomes hegemon. 

The present world order was created in the aftermath of the World War II. The World War II not only ruined European economy but also exhausted the role and relevance of European powers in the international power politics. The US rose from this scenario to become the empire or super power and continues this status till today.

Visible changes 

But changes are already visible in the horizon and new powers are asserting their roles in the international system posing significant threat to America’s dominant presence.  Countries like China, Russia and India are rising economically, militarily and technologically. But it is not yet certain whether they will be able to practically challenge the United States and rise as superpowers. The new powers have to build their economic, military and technological capability on a par with the United States to be new super power. America has the strongest and most sophisticated military. The US possesses vast nuclear arms, the biggest military budget and military bases in all continents. It commands world’s largest military alliance— NATO. None of the new powers, so far, possess all these qualities. 

Thus, there is a little possibility for any country to claim the status of super power in the immediate future. However, it cannot be ruled out that American superiority will continue for an indefinite period. China is rising in lips and bound economically and at the same time it is rising both technologically and militarily. China’s economy is almost close to US economy and is likely to surpass America in near future. The economic prowess alone does not ensure a country to be super power. Beijing, at the moment, is way behind Washington in military strength and quality. Technologically too, US fares better than China. 

The speed with which China is rising in all sectors, China, one day, may rise as super power if Beijing’s present speed of growth remains undisturbed. However, China faces some challenges. Beijing has limited coastline in the South China Sea, which too is a contested region among some East Asian and South East Asian countries like Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and South Korea. Taiwan Strait is already a tense area. China does not enjoy as much coastline freedom and benefit as India and US have.  If some kinds of conflict break out either in Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, Beijing will have very tough time to maintain its supply chain that may seriously impact its economy. China has to overcome all these constraints to ensure its continued rise. 

India has potential to be a world power. India is already a regional power. India is a large country in the world and largest in South Asia in size. It has world’s largest population. India is the most powerful country in South Asia in terms of military power, economic strength and technological innovation. India is strategically well placed and has a long coastline in the Indian Ocean from Andaman Sea to the Arabian Sea. But India is far behind other powers in all sectors — military, economic and technological capabilities and its chances of becoming global power are low. India is a regional power and will continue to remain as an important power of South Asia. 

Russia is another country vying to become world power. Russia is a Eurasian power. Moscow claims to be the successor of the Soviet Union. It is world’s largest country in size and is strong militarily. In terms of natural resources, Russia is rich. But Russia, too, lags far behind the United States in terms of economic, military and technological prowess.  Moreover, Russia has been caught in Ukraine war for the last one and a half year. The war is likely to bleed Russian economy and Moscow will not be able to come out of this very soon. In fact, Ukraine war in a way is the conflict between US-led West and Russia. So it is in the interest of US and the West to prolong Ukraine war and keep Moscow engaged in it. Thus, Russia cannot be a super power. But it will continue to be a European power.

Eurasian landmass

While some new powers are rising, the United States takes the rise of other countries as a threat to its global dominance and is trying to apply multiple approaches and strategies to maintain its global hegemony. As Halford John Mackinder says ‘Eurasian landmass remained to be the heartland of geopolitics in the past and rim lands were the battleground of powers’, the new theatre of international conflict is likely to be southern part of Eurasia in the 21st century. The practical battle grounds will be the rim lands of Pacific and Indian Ocean. 

As United States has taken China as the principal adversary, America and China may fall into what Graham Allison calls the ‘Thucydides trap’. Thucydides trap is a premise that says when the existing dominant power feels threatened by an emerging power, they end up in war. The US and China are not likely to be at direct war but US may try to provoke China to get into conflict either in Taiwan Strait or in the high Himalayas if Galwan like conflict flares up with India.  

(The author is former ambassador and former chief editor of this daily. lamsalyubanath@gmail.com)

Published on July 5, 2023 in The Rising Nepal English daily

https://risingnepaldaily.com/news/29006