US-India Marriage Of Convenience

Yuba Nath Lamsal: In the realist school of international relations, power determines the nature of relations between states. In 2005, the United States refused visa to the then chief minister of India’s Gujarat state Narendra Modi ‘suspecting his role in the 2002 Gujrat riot and violation of religious rights’. However, once Bharatiya Janata Party won the parliamentary election in 2014 and Modi was elected India’s popular Prime Minister, Washington rolled out red carpet to welcome Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a state guest. Modi’s latest three-day visit from July 21 to 23 roused even greater fanfare — perhaps the grandest one in the history of US-India relations. The tone and tenor with which Modi was received in Washington is the manifestation of greater significance America attaches to India in the present geopolitical scenario. Given the international power shift to Asia with the rise of China, Washington and New Delhi deem necessary to come closer and cooperate in containing rising China. Beijing’s rise is designated as a threat to America’s dominant global position and US wants India to join its bandwagon. For the United States, India is the only counterweight to China in the western flank of Asia. India too has ambition to grow as world power and New Delhi is uncomfortable with China’s possible dominant role in Asia and beyond. Neutrality US-India relations had never been cosy in the past. These two countries saw one another with suspicion and susceptibility until the dawn of the new millennia. When India attained independence in 1947, the World War II was just over and Cold War was brewing between the United States and the Soviet Union. Washington viewed democratic India as West’s natural ally and accordingly tried to coax. But India instead chose neutrality in the big power rivalry. In 1950s and1960s, India earned international reputation as a champion of global peace and non-alignment based on which India sought to build friendly relations with all countries of both power blocs. As time goes by, India, in principle, remained non-aligned, but in practice slowly moved closer to the Soviet bloc. The 1962 war with China was a key event that changed the course of India’s foreign policy. Indian Prime Minister Nehru formally wrote to US President John F Kennedy for military and diplomatic support in the war against China. In response, United States extended diplomatic and military support to India recognising the McMahon Line as the international border between India and China and also providing military assistance. Washington, however, had its own calculations and priorities in South Asia and accordingly maintained relations with different countries of the region that, perhaps, did not satisfy New Delhi. Throughout 20th century, Europe was the pivot of geopolitical rivalry and Soviet Union was the principal adversary of the United States. Asia was in periphery in US geopolitical calculus. India then was no power to be reckoned with. Moreover, United States was sceptical over India’s role and behaviour in South Asia. The US, apart from having cooperative relations with India, supported other South Asian countries to survive and grow. Suspicious from India’s growing hobnobbing with Moscow, the US, in particular, supported Pakistan economically and militarily to maintain power balance in the region. India-US relations have undergone ups and down overtime. India-US relations were normal until 60s but turned sour in early 70s. In India-Pakistan war of 1965, United States maintained neutrality. However, in the 1971 India-Pakistan war, Washington sided with Islamabad and provided military and economic support to Pakistan which irritated New Delhi forcing it to sign the strategic cooperation treaty with Soviet Union. This was a turning point in the relations between the United States and India. New Delhi’s strategic bond with Moscow and Soviet Union’s invasion in Afghanistan in 1979 pushed Pakistan further towards US security orbit, which continued until the end of the Cold War. The sudden US-China rapprochement in 1972 following Nixon-Mao meeting in Beijing is yet another factor that distanced India from US and pushed closer to Moscow. With the disintegration of Soviet Union, global geopolitical landscape changed. US remained only superpower marking the beginning of the unipolar world. The emergence of unipolar order changed the strategic thinking of South Asian states. India which was dependent on Soviet Union for the supply of defence hardware and spare parts was left with no option other than seeking an alternative source. The alternative source could not be other than the United States. At the same time, China’s rise also forced India to go into Washington’s lap. After withdrawal of Russian troops from Afghanistan in 1989 and downfall of Soviet empire, US also changed its policy in South Asia. Washington no longer needed Pakistan and its engagement with Islamabad also receded while trying to coax India for a greater partnership and cooperation in the grand strategy of checking rising China. India’s large market was yet another attraction of increased American interest. India and the United States then came closer politically, strategically and economically. Now India is an important ally of US in South Asia and both countries have agreed to cooperate on various sectors including intelligence sharing, joint military drilling, defence, economy and trade. Narendra Modi’s recent US visit and the consequent public mood illustrates the future state of the US-India relations in the 21st century. Love-hate relations India and the US have love-hate relations. They still cannot fully trust one another. What has converged these two powers together is their immediate interests. India and the United States call one another as natural ally but that is a mere tactical one. In fact, they have more divergences than convergences on core issues. India is regional power and has potentials as well as ambition to grow as world power in future. United States understands it and wants to walk along with India in Asian theatre only for sometimes to contain China, while India needs US support for defence deliveries. At the same time economics also plays important role. India wants American capital and investment while US is interested in huge Indian market. Big powers cannot always stand together for a long time as goes the Chinese saying ‘a mountain cannot contain two tigers’. Once India gains enough strength, it may start asserting its position and role which may again distance New Delhi from Washington. Thus, India-US strategic partnership is a marriage of convenience and something like ‘holding hands with the devil to cross the bridge’. (The author is former chief editor of this daily and former ambassador.) Published on August 2, 2023 in The Rising Nepal https://risingnepaldaily.com/news/30321