Xi-Biden Meet Sets New Tone

Yuba Nath Lamsal:- As the summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation or APEC under the theme “Creating a Resilient and Sustainable Future for All” is underway in San Francisco of the United States, more spotlight is on the sideline meeting of US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. APEC is an important regional economic forum, which consists of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region comprising nearly 40 per cent of world’s population (2.95 billion), 62 per cent of world’s GDP, and almost 50 per cent of global trade. APEC meeting is important as leaders of this group are expected to chart out a new economic course of the world. However, the world is watching more closely and with greater interest and concern the meeting between these two leaders instead of the broader outcome of the APEC summit. Xi-Biden meeting is expected to shape the political and economic architecture of the world in the 21st century. When the APEC was established in 1989 as a regional economic group, the world order was different. The hangover of the Cold War was still lingering. Soviet bloc was intact but in a fragile state. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s ‘glasnost and perestroika’ had opened up the once closed communist state and the countries of eastern bloc were slowly coming out of the closed system and embracing open and democratic polity. Paradigm shift The global power structure was slowly changing and the United States was emerging world’s only dominant power. China and United States were allies. Now the global power structure has taken a paradigm shift. The unipolar world is crumbling. Some other countries are emerging as great power economically, militarily and technologically challenging the dominant position of the sole super power America. China is already the second largest economy and is posed to be the number one in near future surpassing the United States. While China’s impressive rise in military might and technological innovation has enthused the rest of the world, it has sent jitters to the United States and its allies. Washington has designated China as its greatest threat in the global power domination. Beijing’s ambition is clear that it aims to be another super power although it does not admit it publicly. The world is in greater turmoil. In all practicalities, the present unipolar world order is certain to crumble and the new one is being born. But it is not sure what the new world order will exactly look like. Opinions are divided as some predict the rise of multi-polar world while others are of the view that the global world order will be bi-polar. Besides China, Russia, India, Brazil, and Indonesia, etc. are rising powers. Russia is militarily powerful, perhaps second to the United States. But its economy is weak. Russia may have ambition to restore Soviet era’s glory as super power but its economy does not permit to be super power. Russia will definitely continue to be European hegemon. Moscow’s muscle flexing in its neighbourhood points to its ambition to become a great power. India has potential of rising as a regional power of Asia. India is far behind in economic, military and technological might compared to US and China to become a super power. Brazil and Indonesia, too, can be regional powers. In the strategic calculus, the US and China have their own plans to influence the global power structure. While United States has strategic upper hand as Washington does not have any challenger in its neighbourhood of American continents and Atlantic Ocean, China has problem in its neighbourhood in Asia-Pacific region. China has fought border wars with some countries and its border disputes continue with some including India. China is surrounded by countries with US treaty and non-treaty allies and Washington has strong military presence in China’s neighbourhood, provoking China to enter into military conflict in the neighbourhood. Beijing has mistrust with several other neighbours including Japan, South Korea and Australia. Despite phenomenal rise economically and technologically, China’s strategic and security vulnerability persists in its own neighbourhood. In the international power politics, no power or country is permanent friend or enemy. What is permanent is the national interest. In the realist international politics, friends become arch rivals and enemies become bosom ally. The US and China were once allies and now they are competitors. Russia and India were partners during the Cold War but now India has gone to US axis. The world is getting more polarised and heading towards more turmoil and uncertainty. Ukraine war has not only sharpened geopolitical polarisation in Europe and rest of the world, it has pushed the world into economic crisis. Food and energy prices had already shored following Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. Israel-Hamas war is likely to push the world into more crises. If further escalated, Israel-Hamas war may disrupt energy supply and trade chain in Asia and Europe as Persian Gulf and Red-Sea are the lifeline of trade. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe is in war for the last two years and West Asia (Middle East) has entered into new conflict in which United States, too, is one way or the other at war. China’s neutrality The US and Western countries have directly supported Ukraine with money, arms and ammunition against Russia, while Arab countries and western world are in two different sides. Given the nature of conflict both in Ukraine and the Arabian Peninsula, war may flare up taking global dimension. While US is indirectly involved in both the wars and this war may deplete resource of US and western countries, China chose to remain neutral. Wars direct or proxy consume time, energy and resources. China opted neutrality in both wars to save resources, which could be used for consolidation of power. The global geopolitical and economic picture appears to be gloomy due to turns of events in Europe and Arabian Peninsula. United States and China are the key players and their action and role will shape the future global order. Against this background, Biden and Xi met in person in San Francisco, which provides both the leaders an opportunity to understand global issues from one another’s perspective. This will, to a large extent, contribute to easing tensions between the two countries especially after last year’s balloon issue and create an atmosphere of cooperation for a better, more peaceful and cooperative world order. (The author is former ambassador and former chief editor of this daily. lamsalyubanath@gmail.com)