New Conflicts Cause Global Disorder

Yuba Nath Lamsal:- The year 2023 is about to bid farewell and a brand new year 2024 will soon dawn. While the year 2023 remained eventful with full of twists and turns in the international political and geopolitical arena having far reaching consequences in the world, the 2024 comes with new hopes and optimism for better world order. The Ukraine war that started in 2022 is still going on, which has impacted the world in multiple ways. It is still not clear what shape and turn this ugly war would take. What is clear is the fact that the Russian invasion in Ukraine has sent a sense of fear in the neighbourhood of Russia. As a consequence, countries in the eastern and northern flank of Europe are strategically moving westward seeking collective European security umbrella. Finland and Sweden sought to join the NATO while Ukraine and Georgia are in the pipelines. Even during the height of the Cold War, Finland practically adopted neutrality which was a role model for many non-aligned and neutral countries in the world. Helsinki has given up this neutrality and recently joined the NATO, which was the making of Russia itself. Gaza conflict While Ukraine conflict has triggered multiple crises in Europe and the rest of the world, the Gaza conflict in Arabian Peninsula has only added further woes. Islamic militant group Hamas made a surprise attack in Israel, provoking Tel Aviv for retaliation. Since then Israel has responded more forcefully in which many innocent civilian population of Palestine are caught in the crossfire. Thousands of Palestinians have been killed while over 50,000 injured and displaced. Several Israeli civilians have also lost lives since the war began in November this year. In this conflict, Hamas should is the principal culprit as it started the violent modus operandi and provoked Tel Aviv. Israel had no other choice but to retaliate. Israel is determined to crush Hamas and has intensified air and ground assaults in Gaza and other Palestinian areas where Hamas militants are believed to have been hiding. This has caused catastrophe in Gaza and other adjacent areas. But the real victims have been the innocent Palestinian civilians including children, women and elderly people. This is a humanitarian crisis. If this crisis further escalates, it will cause greater humanitarian disaster and may turn to be an epicentre of larger war. United Nations secretary general has made multiple appeals for ceasefire in Gaza and the United Nations has adopted resolutions for the same. But UN efforts have failed to yield fruits. UN resolutions may be binding for member states but the militants outfits are not bound by international laws, conventions and appeals. Their only objective is to terrorize societies and take advantage out of public fear. In fact, Hamas was created to fail and foil the Israel-Palestine peace deal on the basis of which two nation principle was formally accepted by both Israel and legitimate Palestinian authority — the Palestine Liberation Organisation. The agreement between Israel and Palestinian Authority was a milestone for peace in the West Asia as well as the cause of Palestinians. But the extremist section in the PLO backed by some Islamic states and militant Islamic groups instigated Hamas to oppose the Israel-Palestinian peace deal. Ultra-rightist elements in Israel also supported Hamas with money and materials to ‘thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state and also to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank’. The world is in the state of turbulence and turmoil. While the two wars in Europe and West Asia have sent ripples worldwide, some new zones of conflict are also becoming visible. Venezuela-Guyana dispute over border may take ugly turn in Latin America if this was not resolved in time. Both Venezuela and Guyana claim over territory of 159,500 square kilometres in the west of Essequibo River. The area, also known as Guyana Essequibo, is oil-rich and geopolitically vital in the Latin and Caribbean Region. Tension rose following a referendum held by Venezuela last month for the status of Essequibo territory, which Guyana rejected and called as Caracas’ design to grab Essequibo region. Venezuela claims that Essequibo was within its borders during the Spanish colonial period while Guyana’s claim contradicts Caracas’ version and says this area belongs to Guyana as per the border drawn by international arbitrators in 1899. As military conflict was feared with both sides putting troops on high alert, Brazil and some Caribbean nations took diplomatic initiative to bring Venezuela and Guyana into negotiating table. Although Guyanese President Irfaan Ali and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who met in St Vincent mediated by Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, agreed not to use force. But it appears to be a mere temporary truce and the long-running dispute remains intact, which may erupt anytime. Africa is the continent which is always conflict prone. Some kind of conflict and war —whether between two states or between armed groups within a country — is a common phenomenon in Africa. Complete peace in African continent is almost and always elusive. This is partly due to the social, political and economic problems and partly geopolitical factor. Africa has been the theatre of proxy wars of extra-continental powers. Geopolitical gravity The geopolitical gravity is shifting to Asia with rise of China and other countries including India. The global order is changing. US will no longer be the largest economy, mightiest military power and the most innovative country. China has emerged to challenge the US on multiple fronts marking the end of unipolar world and rise of bipolar world. This order too will be short-lived. If India and other powers rise further, that will again mark the end of bipolar world to be replaced by multi-polar world. China’s rise is a formidable threat to US dominant role in the world. Washington is effortful to maintain the global status quo wherein the US-dominated global order or disorder remains intact. Washington’s primary strategic goal is to prevent China from gaining more power and influence while China remains formidable and determined in the pursuit of assertive role in the global affairs. In this rivalry, Indo-Pacific region is likely to be a new theatre of conflict in Asia. Given this global scenario, it remains to be seen how events will unfold in different potential flash points that will determine the fate of the world order or disorder. (The author is former ambassador and former chief editor of this daily. lamsalyubanath@gmail.com) Published on Dec 20, 2023