Nepalese need to learn lessons from Libya

Yuba Nath Lamsal

Catastrophe does not take place with prior notice and warning. But this is
not the case with Libya's Colonel Maummar Gaddafi. There had been loud and
clear warning of political tsunami in Libya long ago. The Arab Spring and
Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution that swept across the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA) should have served a clear warning to Libya's dictator. But
Gaddafi failed to read the writing on the wall and people's mood, which
proved costly for him. Had he sensed the magnitude of the revolution and
protests that had been snowballing since last February and acted in time to
pacify the people's rebellion, he would not have met such a humiliating
fate. As a result, 42-year old erratic rule of Libya's dictator came to a
bad end. And the Gaddafi's regime in Tripoli collapsed like a house of
cards.

The Jasmine Revolution that forced Tunisia's dictator flee the country
paving the way for multi-party political system sent a message of freedom
across the entire MENA region. After Tunisia, the revolution pushed Egyptian
dictator Hosni Mubarak's out of power. The fervor of revolution and protest
has now engulfed Syria, Yemen, Iran, Jordon, Bahrain Qatar and several other
countries in the region. The Arab dictators are tottering under popular
discontent and protest. With Libya's eccentric dictator already out of
power, Syria's iron-fist ruler Basir al Assad is, perhaps, counting his days
as the protest against him is building up every passing day. Iran is in the
process s of implosion and Saudi Arabia's king, too, is likely to face the
wrath of people anytime.

The success of revolutionaries in seizing the Libya has given a morale boost
to revolutionaries all over the Arab world and North Africa. Although
reports are still sketchy, one thing is sure that Maummar Gaddafi is out of
power and oil-rich Libya has been liberated from his worst rule. Despite
sporadic gunfire and resistance from Qaddafi's loyalists in certain pockets,
the revolutionaries have already taken control over most parts of the
country including capital Tripoli and other major cities. The protracted
resistance and war against the dictator finally came to fruition as rebels
have been able to seize Libyan capital Tripoli recently. There is no chance
of Gaddafi's coming back to power. This is a triumphant of people's
resistance.

It had not been thought that the rebels would so quickly enter into Tripoli
and siege control of Libya. It was sudden but daring. With rebels taking
control over Tripoli, people got euphoric albeit with some fear of
insecurity due to exchange of gunfire. However, the euphoria is slowly dying
down and it is turning into despair as country has now fallen into the trap
of civil war. Given the circumstances in Libya, the future looks gloomy and
bleak as Libya's case is different from other countries. In Tunisia and
Egypt, the revolution was home-grown with moral support from outside. But
Libya's revolution was more sponsored and supported by outsider especially
western countries and a few Arab dictators, which is a big insult to the
revolutionary and patriotic Libyan people.

Although Libya has been liberated from the iron-fist rule of the worst
dictator of the 21st century, there are many questions that have remained
unanswered. The first and the foremost question is whether the revolution in
Libya is a genuine resistance of the people or just an instigation of
external forces and imperialists. The way the rebels were backed by Arab
dictators, it is becoming clearer that the mission Libya was not meant for
liberation of the people from dictatorial rule but a design to oust Gaddafi
and install in his place a pro-West government so that the west could
control over Libya's oil and natural resources. The imperialists wanted to
get rid of Gaddafi because he was not willing to do what the western
countries desired. They want to replace him with a more pliant and obedient
stooge. Above all, they want to get their hands on Libya's rich oil
supplies. Greed, not humanitarianism, is their real motive. The uprising
against Gaddafi provided them with an opportunity that was too good to miss.
The western world especially the United States had long been seeking Colonel
Gaddafi's ouster from power simply because the Libyan dictator was its
staunch critic.

The rebels were able to overpower Gaddafi's sophisticated and well-armed and
well-equipped army not on their own strength but because of the support they
got from NATO troops and some western powers mainly the United States of
America, Britain, France and Italy. In the name of protecting civilians and
under the cover of UN resolution, have killed more civilians than Gaddafi's
forces did during the six-month conflict. The NATO troops not only attacked
Gaddafi's key targets and installations but also gave full air security
coverage for the fighting rebels, which made the advancement of the rebels
possible.

It was tough and difficult for the rebels to enter Tripoli and drive Gaddafi
and his army away from the heart of the capital. But it is more difficult to
rule the country and maintain full control. Moreover, the anti-Gaddafi
alliance is so fragile and divided that it can break anytime and is likely
to give rise to chaos and fighting among the constituents of the alliance.
Several groups have been cobbled together to create a loose alliance called
the National Transitional Council (NTC) to spearhead the movement, which has
been recognized by the international community as a legitimate government of
Libya. The constituents of the NTC have diverse interests and priorities and
it is less likely that they would remain in the alliance for a long time.

In the past, Gaddafi was seen as a dictator. There is no shade of doubt
that Gaddafi is a notorious dictator of 21st century. But the way the
external forces openly attacked in the name of support to the rebels is
being viewed as an imperialist aggression and interference in Libya. This
has changed the public mood in Libya and ordinary Libyans may see Gaddafi as
a patriotic leader. As the alliance is not likely to last long and civil war
may prolongue, western force in collaboration with the some Arab countries
may intervene in Libya to control its oil and other resources in the same
manner as they have done in Afghanistan and Iraq. The mood of the people in
Libya is, thus, changing fast within such a short period. The euphoria is
slowly vanishing so early even before the mission was completely achieved.

The NTC is set to form its transitional government in Libya with rebel
leader Mustafa Abdul Jalil as the head of the interim government. But
situation is already slipping out of hands of Libyan people. The western
countries and their stooges are poised to take over Libya's rein. Although
they want democracy and freedom, Libyans by no means are in favor of the
rule of foreign stooges. Now the more fierce battle is likely to begin
against imperialists who are scrambling to control Libya's oil and other
natural resources. The way external forces are already competing to grab the
resources of Libya indicates the situation that there would be war not only
between the Libyan people and imperialists but also among the external
forces.

The euphoria that had been prevalent in Libyan streets is now turning into
despair marked by doubt, confusion and accusations. The case of Libya is the
direct intervention from the western countries. The confused and
contradictory reports from Libyan capital indicate that what we saw in the
last six months was not the end but only the beginning of the battle. Libya
is likely to witness a protracted civil war as Gaddafi has vowed to continue
war against imperialist.

The NATO was mandated to take action in Libya to protect the innocent lives.
But more innocent people were killed in NATO bombings than the number of
people killed during the war between the rebels and Gaddafi's troops. NATO
planes had attacked over 4,000 targets in Libya. These targets were not only
military, but included civilian areas. Some people even describe the NATO
bombing as more relentless and brutal than Gaddafi's suppression. More than
1,300 people were killed in NATO attacks in Tripoli alone. There are, thus,
speculations that Libya could be another Afghanistan or Iraq which would see
a protracted conflict and could become a breeding ground for international
terrorism.

Libya's case should serve an important lesson for Nepal in the present
critical juncture. Nepal is also in transition. Still the situation is
volatile from which external forces are trying to take advantage. Although
Nepal does not possess significant natural resources, it is becoming
strategically vital for international powers because of its location. Nepal
is a bridge between not only world's two big economies and military
powers-China and India-but also between East Asia and South Asia. Although
magnitude is different, the nature and character of the external
interference and meddling is identical in Libya and Nepal. In Libya, western
powers have used the growing dissent of the people as their instrument to
interfere and control over Libya's oil and natural resources. In the same
manner, India and some western countries are trying to utilize Nepal's
strategic vitality and importance for their national interest. However,
Nepal's political parties are either ignorant of this fact or assisting the
expansionist force deliberately. If this trend continues, Nepal may, one
day, turn into another Afghanistan or Iraq. It is high time that all
patriotic forces get united and foil the expansionist and hegemonic design,
which alone can keep our national independence and territorial integrity
intact.

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