Peace Process In Coma

Yuba Nath Lamsal

The ongoing peace process seems to be in coma. The peace process had picked momentum a few months ago especially after Dr Baburam Bhattarai was elected as Prime Minister of Nepal, which had made the people slightly optimistic. However, this optimism soon evaporated as a new deadlock surfaced because of parties’ perceptional and positional differences on some key issues. On the surface, it seems that the differences among parties on army integration, governance model and state restructuring are said to be the reason for the new deadlock in constitution writing and peace process. However, there is something else behind the deadlock and delay in the peace process. The parties have their perceptional differences on the basic concept of the peace process, which is the fundamental reason behind the impasse in the entire political process.

Major political parties have their own position on governance model, army integration and federal structure. They have not yet arrived at a common point on these issues. The army integration issue had already been sorted out as parties had agreed to integrate at most 6,500 combatants into the security organs and the rest would be offered voluntary retirement with cash incentive. But the conflicting views of parties on rank harmonization of the combatants have created a new stalemate. As a result, army integration issue, which is the key component of the peace process, remains unresolved.

On the army integration issue, parties have perceptional differences. The Maoists want constitution writing earlier and then move onto the completion of the peace process. But other parties especially the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML are in favor of completion of the peace process before the promulgation of the new constitution. Here lies the fundamental difference. This positional difference has occurred out of the fear psychology of the parties. The Maoists want to formally institutionalize the agenda and achievements through a new constitution, which, they believe, would make their political standing and position stronger. Other parties’ demand to complete the peace process prior to constitution is their fear of Maoist fighters. They want to disarm, dissolve and disintegrate the Maoist combatants so that the Maoist party would lose its main source of strength.

The wrangling concerning what is to be accomplished first—constitution or peace process— has come up because of their perception and analysis of post-May 28 political scenario. The parties are not certain that the constitution would be promulgated by May 28. If Constituent Assembly fails to complete the writing the constitution by May 28, there would be a constitutional and political vacuum and crisis. Since the combatants are the main source of Maoist strength, the UCPN- Maoist, does not want to lose the PLA. If PLA is disarmed and disintegrated prior to writing the new constitution and charting out the next political course of the country, the Maoists may perceive to be defenseless. Thus, the party seems to be dilly dallying the integration issue until there is a guarantee of promulgation of the new constitution. Moreover, the Maoist party is not unanimous on the modality of the integration of its combatants.

The Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML are pushing for early completion of PLA management because they want the PLA to be disarmed and evicted from the camps before May 28. They have perceived the PLA as their main threat and want to disintegrate the Maoist force to ensure that there would not be any kind of threat to the Congress and UML in the post-May 28 political situation. If the constitution is not promulgated by May 28, the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML may opt for a fresh election in the form of referendum—the point Supreme Court has also raised in its landmark verdict concerning the extension of the Constituent Assembly.

Given the developments in constitution writing and the attitude of the political parties, the constitution is less likely to be ready by May 28. We have now less than three months to meet that deadline. But some serious national issues are yet to be resolved. The governance model and the modality of federalism are the two pressing issues that are likely to consume longer time. Thus, the country is likely to witness more serious constitutional and political crisis in future as parties are not serious on completing constitution writing job in time.

There is yet other reason why parties are deliberately delaying the constitution writing. This is because of their inferior complex. The Maoists are not enthusiastic to expedite the constitution writing because they know that they would not be able to write the constitution of their choice. The constitution would a compromising documents of four major political forces—UCPN-Maoist, Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and the Madhesi Front. The Maoists are pushing for a constitution with the essence of ‘anti-feudalism and anti-imperialism’. However, other parties are united against this Maoist proposal terming it as a design to turn the country into a one party dictatorship. In reality, parties are calculating their loss and gains in post-May 28 situation. If constitution is promulgated by May 28, the Constituent Assembly would cease to exist. After the promulgation of a new constitution, the country will have to go for a fresh election for parliament. The parties are not sure of their position if the elections are held in near future. Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML fared poorly in the CA election held four years ago. They still do not see any valid ground to improve their position in the next election as they have done nothing to boost their popularity over the last four years. The Nepali Congress somehow may maintain its present position in the next election. But CPN-UML is expected to suffer very badly as its position is fast dwindling. Hardcore communist cadres have already left this party and joined the UCPN-Maoist. As CPN-UML has adopted a more reformist political line in the name of ‘People’s Multi-Party Democracy’, more supporters and sympathizers are slowly losing their interest in the UML. As a result, the position of the CPN-UML is shaky. Thus, it does not want an election in immediate future. It has been expecting a split in the UCPN-Maoist which would help the Congress and the CPN-UML to have better position in the election. As the Maoist party was on the verge of split due to open defiance by Vaidya faction, the Congress and the UML were in haste to early competition of constitution writing and the peace process. Once the Maoist factions managed their differences and the possibility of split in the UCPN-Maoist was averted, Congress and UML are now desperate and are trying to scuttle and delay the constitution writing and the peace process so that the next election would be avoided. The Madhesi parties have their own standing and calculation on the present politics and also on post-May 28 scenario. They have been fragmented so badly that they are not likely to maintain the present position in the next election.

The UCPN-Maoist may be the beneficiary, to some extent, if the constitution promulgated by May 28 and election held thereafter. But this party is also not confident of its better position in the next election. At present, it is largest political party and being the largest political of the country, Nepal’s politics is now revolving around the activities and the decisions of the Maoists. Once constitution is promulgated and Constituent Assembly dissolved, it would lose formal and legal status of the largest political party. In such a scenario, the political lead role that Maoists are enjoying and exercising would slip out of their hands.

The political parties are deliberately delaying the peace process in an attempt to have their upper hand in the entire exercise. But upper hand of one particular party is least likely because of the equation in the Constituent Assembly and the constitutional provision. Nepali Congress and CPN-UML may prefer the option of the dissolution of Constituent Assembly because it would end the position of the UCPN-Maoist as the largest party. In such a scenario, Congress and UML can claim equal share in the political process like the one they had before Constituent Assembly election.

These are the reason why the tasks of constitution writing and peace process are being entangled and delayed. As a result, the country and the people have suffered. Nepal has already witnessed a prolonged transition which has contributed to instability, poor law and order and stagnation of economic activities. The country cannot afford longer transition, which needs to be ended. The transition would come to an end only when a new constitution is promulgated and peace process completed. The country cannot be made hostage to petty interests of political parties. If the twin tasks of constitution writing and peace process were further delayed or derailed, people would hold the political parties responsible for failing the country, which would prove costly for the parties and leaders.