Chinese premier's strategic trip to India, Pakistan

Yuba Nath Lamsal

The recent visit of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang  to India and China, as a part of six country maiden sojourn since he assumed the premiership, has been analyzed as a diplomatic move with far-reaching impact not only  for better and closer relations between China and South Asia but also peace, security and balance of power in the region. With the end of Cold War marked by visible policy shift of the United States in South Asia with that has shown a clear tilt towards India and distance with its traditional Cold War era ally Pakistan, many have predicted a U-turn in the balance of power in South Asia. In such a situation, South Asian countries especially Pakistan has looked more to China to fill the void left by the US policy shift in security and balance of power. Although China is not interested in propping any particular country against other, Beijing is definitely serious for peace, stability and time and situation. It is against this backdrop, Li’s recent visit to India and China has been viewed and analyzed both in the region as well as abroad.

South Asia is China’s neighborhood. China is partly a South Asian country because much of its landmass is connected with South Asia. Of the eight South Asian countries, China shares common land border with five countries (Nepal, India, Bhutan, Pakistan and Afghanistan). Similarly, China shares maritime border with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives. No South Asian country has common land border with as many countries as China does China. India has common land border with four countries ( Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan and Bangladesh), Pakistan has two ( Afghanistan and India), Bangladesh, Bhutan  and Pakistan have common border with one country ( India) and Sri Lanka and Maldives do not at all share common land border with any of the countries. South Asia is therefore extremely important region for China from every perspective.

Every neighbor in the region is important for China. India and Pakistan are more important because of their physical size as well as their size of economy.  Both countries are not only nuclear weapon powers but are also emerging economies. China has no problem with Pakistan except deep and warm cooperation and friendship, while there is history’s baggage with India. China once fought border war with India and a border dispute is yet to be resolved. But both the countries have agreed to settle the border dispute peacefully and have vowed not to allow the bilateral relations to be affected by border dispute. In recent years, India and China are important trade partners with more than 66 billion dollar annual trade between these two countries and the trade between these countries is growing every year. They have pledged to increase the bilateral trade to 100 billion dollars by 2020. Given the annual rise in the bilateral trade between these two countries, the goal to increase to 100 billion dollar is feasible and possible in near future.

Pakistan is China’s strategic partner and an all-weather friend whereas China’s interest in India is growing because of its market. In other words, China’s relationship with Pakistan is guided more by strategic interest while economic interest is the prime driving force for China-India relations. It is therefore China is keen to expand the economic ties with India and wants to down play other conflicts. Moreover, Beijing has not perceived any kind of threat from India itself because India does not stand anywhere in terms of military and economic power compared to China. From the standpoint of military power and strength, India is fifty years behind while economically India is at least 20 years behind China. In the present global condition, China has taken the United States the only rival and threat. The United States, too, has seemingly perceived China as a challenger to its power and global influence. The United States has increased its presence in and around Asia Pacific region with the objective of containing China. There has already been increased presence and engagement in the Asia Pacific for which Washington has reached military, strategic and security alliances with several Asian countries including, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, India and several Central Asian Republics. In some of these countries, the United States has established military bases. This military alliance and presence in these countries is directed towards encircling China. As a part of this broad strategy, the United States has entered into a strategic partnership with India in South Asia and trying to strengthen India’s military and strategic capability whereas Washington is doing everything possible to weaken and destroy China’s trusted ally Pakistan.
China understands that the United States may use India against China and has taken the US policy in South Asia and US-India Strategic Alliance seriously. China is not afraid of India but Beijing’s apprehension is that the United States is coming closer to south-western border of China through India. Beijing, therefore, wants to engage India economically so that New Delhi may remain neutral and keep itself at distance from Washington’s design against China.
Whatever the reason, cooperation between China and South Asia is needed for peace stability, security and prosperity of South Asia. China has money whereas South Asia is desperately in need of foreign investment. China is willing to invest and contribute to peace and development of the region.
China does not intend to compete but collaborate with India in various bilateral, regional and international issues and forums. As these two countries are the biggest economies of Asia, it would be definitely in the larger interest of the region if these two countries cooperate. China wants collaboration with India not only in economic issues but on security and peace of Asia in general and South Asia in particular. Extra-continental powers are trying to create conflict and clash between these two Asian neighbors and extract benefit out of it. China has understood it and watched closely. It is for this reason why China wants to work more closely with India. Now it is the turn of India to reciprocate and genuinely work collectively for peace security and stability of the region. If extra-continental power consolidates its position in South Asia, it would be detrimental to India, too, in the long run.
The 21^st century belongs to Asia and the global power is shifting to Asia with China and being in the central stage. It is against this background, UCPN-Maoist chairman Prachanda raised the issue of trilateral (China-Nepal-India) strategic partnership. China has taken this proposition in a serious tenor, while India seems to be still hesitant. India’s hesitation is guided by its past hangover because it tends to treat its small neighbors not on equal basis but as junior partners. New Delhi, thus, hesitated to take Prachanda’s proposition in a serious and positive manner. Recent Li Keqiang’s visit to India and China also aimed at bringing South Asian neighbors closer and creating an atmosphere of trust among the neighbors for increased cooperation and collaboration for the larger good of the people. China is willing to make any kind of cooperation to foster a new sense of cooperation and collaboration in the region so that South Asia may not remain as an island of poor in Asia.

As US foreign policy priority has changed in South Asia after the end of the Cold War, China, too, is trying to adjust its relations accordingly in South Asia. This has become visible after Xi Jinping came to power in Beijing. China under President Xi and Premier Li Keqiang has focused its foreign policy on Asia. Soon after coming to power, President Xi began his first foreign visit from Russia and Premier Li from South Asia. This is a clear testimony of the fact that new China is more Asia oriented. China is becoming more generous towards its neighbors and the neighborhood. South Asia in general and India in particular needs to reciprocate accordingly to foster greater degree of cooperation between China and South Asia for the larger benefit of the people of the region. All South Asian countries, except India, are friendly and positive towards China and are responding to China’s generous and friendly attitude in a positive manner. India is the only country that is still skeptical about China’s good intention and still trying to play at the behest of extra-continental powers. New Delhi, thus, is required to shed this kind of mentality and come forward with open mind for bilateral and regional cooperation for the overall benefit of the region.