Modi’s message to South Asia

Yuba Nath Lamsal

The newly elected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi has chosen Bhutan as the first country for his maiden foreign trip. It is quite in contrast to what his predecessors had done as no previous Indian prime minister ever shoes Bhutan as the destination of his or her first foreign trip. This is also against general perception that he would start his foreign trip with big bang from some powerful countries like Russia, Japan, France or Great Britain. If not he was expected to begin his foreign trip from South Asia possibly either from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or Nepal. Nepal was even upbeat with rumors had it that Modi would visit Nepal soon after his inauguration as Prime Minister for pilgrimage purpose to pay homage to Lord Pashupatinath. However, all the guess works failed as Modi announced that Bhutan is his first choice for official foreign trip as Prime Minister.

If everything goes well, Narendra Modi will fly to Thimpu probably in the third week of June. An advance Indian team is already in Thimpu to take stock of security and other matters and make necessary preparation for Modi’s visit. Upon return from Thimpu, he will prepare to embark on another foreign sojourn to Japan to be followed by his visit to the United States in September this year.

It is purely the prerogative of Prime Minister Modi and the Indian government to take decision on this issue. But the surprise manner the decision was announced, it has definitely stirred debate both within India and in South Asia as to why Modi chose Bhutan for his maiden foreign visit. Even officials at the South Block may have been taken by surprise as they had not even slightest of hint of this decision. Thus, Modi wanted to give multiple messages both at home and abroad by his first foreign trip to Bhutan. As per media reports and analysis, it is Modi’s ‘humble beginning’ to embark on his foreign trip and diplomatic maneuvering as Bhutan is considered insignificant in the global diplomatic and security chessboard.  The another message he wanted to give by his own decision to go to Bhutan first before he gets on board on the international diplomacy is that  Modi may not depend solely on bureaucrats and agency people instead he wants to deal with foreign policy issues at the political level. If this is at all true, it may signal a positive message not only to his own Indian people but also to its neighbors as the last few years under Manmohan Singh regime have seen agency people and bureaucrats running the show in foreign policy handling. This has resulted in more negative image of India in the neighborhood. Narendra Modi seems to project India’s soft power in the neighborhood and beyond to create more positive image of India in the international arena for which he might not allow bureaucracy and agencies to have dominant role in the conduct of foreign policy.

This is a part of story but the other part is his domestic compulsion and BJP’s long-held position vis-a-vi its relations with other countries mainly in South Asia. Narendra Modi’s party—the Bharatiya Janata Party, is known to have more hawkish foreign policy based on Kautilya’s Mandala theory of governance that seeks to dominate peripheral states and consolidate power at the centre. The Indian establishment in general and the BJP in particular place India at the center of South Asia and treat the rest of South Asian countries as peripheral states. This notion was mooted and pushed ahead more forcefully and prominently by Ballav Bhai Patel in post-independence era of India. Patel served as the second-in-command in the Nehru cabinet immediately after India’s independence and is praised in India as an ‘iron man’ but criticized abroad for his hardliner image. Patel is believed to have once proposed to then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to annex all smaller independent countries of South Asia but was rejected by Nehru for fear of condemnation and possible retribution from the international community. While Congress reveres Gandhi and Nehru, Narendra Modi and the BJP take Patel as their role model. The expulsion of BJP’s formidable leader and ex-foreign and finance minister Jaswant Singh from the party for criticizing Patel in his book a few years ago  is a testament of how BJP respects Patel. For Narendra Modi, Patel is more respectable as both Patel and Modi are Gujarati. Thus, Modi is Patel’s true follower and would try to walk on Patel’s path especially when it comes to foreign policy handling. We can thus expect more hawkish neighborhood policy under Modi and his choice of Bhutan as the first priority country may be a reflection of this policy.

Modi’s decision to go to Bhutan for maiden foreign visit may be analyzed as a reward for Thimpu’s subservient role and wiliness to follow and implement New Delhi’s diktat on both domestic as well as foreign policy. If we look at the series of events and developments over the last few years, Bhutan has been acting strictly in the interest of India on every issue and affairs even at its own expense. On request of New Delhi, Bhutan conducted Operation All Clear in 2003 to flush out insurgents who had been fighting insurgency against the Indian government, which India has taken as special favor to it.  

The China factor is yet another reason. Bhutan shares 605-kilometer border with India and 470-km border with China. Beijing is very keen on establishing full-fledged diplomatic relations with Bhutan and establishing its embassy in Thimpu. The Chinese move has made many in the Indian establishment nervous. Modi choosing Bhutan as the first destination of his foreign trip also aims at keeping Bhutan away from China. In addition to this, Bhutan is a major source of hydro power for India and New Delhi plans to construct three hydropower projects in Bhutan with the capacity of 1,400 megawatts.
Modi’s choice of Bhutan as the destination of his first foreign trip could have been BJP’s or Modi’s symbolic message to the rest of South Asia. India often hails Indo-Bhutan relationship as the role model of India’s relations with its neighbors in South Asia especially with smaller countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan. If this is the kind of message that the new regime in New Delhi is trying to send to its neighbors, it will only backfire as no South Asian country is willing to accept ‘Bhutan model of relationship with India’.

So far as Nepal and its relations with India are concerned, Nepalese people, despite having common border and sharing many commonalities are always skeptical and susceptible with Indian establishment due to hawkish and bullish policy and attitude of Indian establishment. Nepal and Nepalese people have no ill feelings to any country in the world and want similar kind of response and reciprocity from other countries including India. Nepal’s foreign policy is clearly guided by the United Nations Charter and the principles of non-alignment. In other words, the internationally recognized and accepted five principles of peaceful existence are the bases of Nepal’s foreign policy. Although India, too, accepts and preach these principles in the international arena as the fundamental basis of conducting foreign policy, it hardly exercises and respects them when it comes to dealing with its smaller and weaker nations. With Narendra Modi coming to power  and demonstrating a gesture of goodwill to all South Asian leaders by inviting them to his inauguration, it had instilled the hope with the people and governments of South Asia that BJP government under Narendra Modi will be different from the earlier regimes. Nepalese people were more optimistic from the initial indications and gesture of new prime minister of India. However, given the developments in the short span of time since Modi came to power in India, things do not appear to be moving on the correct path as they had earlier been expected. Given the agency people and bureaucrats having dominant role in Nepal policy and handling Nepal-India relations, it had been expected that Modi’s rise would bring this trend to an end and start afresh in building relationship with Nepal so that both the countries would mutually benefit. Although it is still premature to arrive at a definite conclusion because Modi has just started his work, the initial indications, however, do not portray a very positive picture. Let’s wait and watch how things develop especially on issues concerning Nepal-India relationship.