Scenario for Nepal-China-India trilateral strategic partnership emerging

Yuba Nath Lamsal
With the new leadership taking the helms of government in Nepal, India and China, it is now more likely that the concept of trilateral strategic cooperation among these three close neighbors will once again take a shape benefitting all of them. Now all the three countries—Nepal, China and India— have new leadership with fresh mandate and more commitment to spearhead their countries to greater prosperity through mutually shared cooperation and exchange of experiences among neighbors and friends. Nepal, China and India have many things in common and are destined to cooperate with one another to tackle the common and identical problems facing them. History, nature, and culture have compelled them to work together.
The recent political developments in these countries are indications that these three neighbors are likely to build an effective and practical strategic partnership for their mutual interest and prosperity. Nepal, India and China have now new leaders committed for greater cooperation for development. In China, Xi Jinping took the  rein of government last year. Narendra Modi has recently been elected to India’s top position of Prime Minister following a landslide victory of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the parliamentary election, whereas, Sushil Koirala of the Nepali Congress is in the helms of the
government in Nepal. Xi and Modi have one thing in common that they are committed to do everything possible for the development of own countries, peace in the region and abroad. It is therefore expected that these two leaders may be willing to go extra miles for greater cooperation between India and China.

After coming to power last year, Chinese President Xi has focused more on mutual cooperation in the neighborhood that includes, among others, Nepal and India. This means that President Xi is willing to work together and contribute to stability, peace and prosperity in the neighborhood. China has already emerged as world's second largest economy and China has been able to lift the life standard of its people in a phenomenal way, which has been well appreciated by the international community. The World Bank has hailed highly the efforts of Chinese government to lift its people from
poverty. And Chinese leadership wants the neighborhood also to benefit from China’s prosperity, for which Beijing may be willing do everything possible.
Similarly, the rise of Modi has also heralded a new era in India. Despite his poor tract record on preventing communal riot and taking action against those who had been involved in anti-Muslim riot in Gujarat a few years ago, he has been hailed by many for his development model. Narendra Modi as chief Minister had been successful in brining investment from within and outside India, which proved to be catalytic for changing the economic face of Gujarat. Thus, the entire India is now expecting the similar kind of development model in the country, for which Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party has been given a landslide mandate by the voters.

Although Modi’s rise has sent shocks wave to some countries and pundits, it is likely to have positive impact on relations with Nepal and China and also Nepal. More particularly, the new Indian Prime Minister is in the mood of having better and more friendly relations with the neighbor specially China. Modi’s mantra is development for which he will be desperately seeking foreign investment and fund. China may be his best bait. While India is a resource strapped country to speed up its development activities, China has money and expertise and is also willing to invest in a big market like India. When Narendra Modi was the chief minister of Gujarat, he visited China in 2011 and requested Chinese government and Chinese businessmen to invest in India. During his visit to China, Narendra Modi presented a business card with one side in Chinese letters and in red — the color that symbolizes wealth and good fortune in China. This was Modi’s style and gesture of wooing Chinese businessmen, which gave positive message in China and, to some extent, he was successful. As a result, Gujarat saw significant investment from China. Of the total 900 million dollars Chinese investment in India, a lion’s share is in Gujarat, which Narendra Modi often dubbed as "India's Guangdong".

Despite skepticism of some countries especially Pakistan and the United States about Narendra Modi, China seems to be more enthusiastic in building more meaningful economic relationship with India under Narendra Modi as Prime Minister, which may also have positive impact on other aspects of bilateral relations. The other positive aspect that may play role in enhancing meaningful cooperation between India and China is Narendra Modi’s own willingness. Modi is highly impressed by China’s economic and development model and he is desirous to replicate this model in India. Analyzing possible scenario of China’s relationship with India during Narendra Modi’s tenure as Prime Minister, Hu Shisheng, a South Asian expert at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said ‘economic ties will enter a new phase due to Modi's admiration for China's economic development and his achievements in developing Gujarat into one of India's most prosperous states through close cooperation with countries including China’.

China and India are, thus, likely to move closer and cooperate with one another in a more meaningful manner, from which Nepal, being situated between these two countries, needs to reap maximum benefit. The initial indications demonstrate that new Indian Prime Minister, unlike his predecessors, is likely to deal with the neighbors at the political level. Modi’s invitation to all leaders of the SAARC countries to attend his inauguration ceremony could be a good gesture towards better understanding with neighbors in South Asia at the political level. As far as the relation between Nepal and India are concerned, not much change can be expected because India’s foreign policy does not often change. Thus, there will not be significant change in Nepal-India relations. But, given Modi’s initial gesture, one can fairly guess that the Indian establishment may not totally and solely depend upon agency people in handling Nepal affairs. The last few years saw heavy handedness of agency people in handling Nepal affairs and now Modi and his foreign minister Susma Swaraj are expected to deal with Nepal at political level.

With Modi coming to power in India, there have been many
speculations both in South Asian neighborhood and also in the
international arena that the regime change in India will take a sharp
turn in its foreign policy impacting seriously in the regional balance
of power and international relations. Since India is a big country in South Asia with big economy and big military, the concerns are genuine. More concerned are Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan is concerned because Islamabad had fought wars and their relationship is still not at ease. Pakistan is skeptical that relations between India and Pakistan will be strained during Modi’s premiership. Its concerns and skepticism are genuine due mainly to Modi’s and his party’s hawkish remarks on Pakistan. But this skepticism has been pacified as Modi invited Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaj Sharif to his inauguration and held talks in a friendly and frank manner, which has instilled optimism for better relations between India and Pakistan. Washington’s worry was due to its denial of visa to Narendra Modi to visit the United States. But Modi after assuming power has demonstrated that change of person in power and personal liking and disliking will have no significant impact on country’s foreign policy. But one thing is sure that Modi is likely to have more bonhomie with Russia and accord more priority to Russia rather than the United States.

As Modi is likely to strengthen economic ties with China, keeping aside the long-running border dispute, Nepal’s new government has to demonstrate astute diplomatic acumen and deal accordingly with both our neighbors from which Nepal can benefit a lot. Situated between India and China, Nepal can and should play the role of vibrant bridge between these two giants. The way international and regional scenario is developing, Nepal’s position is becoming geo-politically more vital. Being a small and poor country, Nepal definitely needs support and cooperation from China and India for its development. But, at the same time, newer developments are creating a situation where India and China may need Nepal more than Nepal will need them. India and China are world’s fastest growing economies and these countries are deepening and enlarging the areas and scopes of bilateral cooperation for their mutual interest. India needs Chinese investment for its own industrialization and economic development whereas China, too, is keenly interested to have strong foothold in a big market like India through which it can have meaningful presence in the entire South Asia.  India and China need one another and their cooperation will be a win-win proposition in which Nepal’s role and significance will figure more prominently. India’s march for industrialization and economic development may be seriously impaired due to the energy crunch. India will be need more energy for its development and industrialization but has limited options. Nepal’s role can be crucial in this. Nepal has tremendous hydro power potentials from which it can leap forward in the development front. But Nepal desperately lacks adequate fund.  China has fund and expertise to develop hydro power whereas India has a big market. In such a situation, both of its neighbors will have to woo Nepal and persuade for a trilateral venture, which can be a great boon for all these three countries. Thus, the time has come to promote trilateral cooperation for which Nepal has to advance and enhance its diplomatic efficiency and acumen winning confidence of both of our two big neighbors.