Beginning of new optimism in Nepal-India relations

Yuba Nath Lamsal

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned home upon concluding his two-day whirlwind visit to Nepal. Modi’s visit was the first visit of Indian Prime Minister in 17 years. No Indian Prime Minister had ever visited Nepal since IK Gujral did in 1997, whereas almost a dozen Prime Ministers of Nepal visited India during this period. Thus, this visit definitely generated much curiosity and interest in both Nepal and India.

Narednra Modi’s visit has left a good impression in Nepal as unlike his predecessors, Modi tried to woo Nepalese people promising a lot and did not try to impose anything on Nepal. He maintained protocol strictly and behaved with Nepali counterpart and other leaders perfectly in a way what two sovereign countries are required to do. There was not even a slightest of behavior on the part of Prime Minister Modi to boast of India’s superiority as some of his predecessors often tried to portray in the past. He was humble and gave the impression that Nepal and India are two equal partners whose destiny is identical as their history.

The relations between Nepal and India has never been at ease due mainly to Indian establishment’s haughty and bullish attitude and flawed neighborhood policy. Right after 1816 Sugauli Treaty signed between Nepal and British colonial ruler, the Indian attitude has been flawed and objectionable. Despite India’s independence from the British colonial rule in 1947, India did not change its colonial mentality in dealing with neighborly countries. Although India champions the cause of developing countries, it has not been reflected in New Delhi’s neighborhood policy, which is being criticized even within India by foreign policy and strategic experts and analysts.

Narendra Modi seems to be different from most of his predecessors especially in dealing with India’s neighbors mainly Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Given Modi’s tone and tenor, he seems to have adopted the policy of pursuance to woo and build partnership with neighbors, whereas most of his predecessors had adopted coercive policy with neighbors. Despite high stature in the international arena as one of the founders of non-aligned movement and the Five Principles Peaceful Co-existence in conducting foreign policy and international relations, the first Prime Minister of India Jawaharlal Nehru had a parochial mindset in relations with the small neighbor s. His successors like Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, Narsinmha Rao and Manmohan Singh, too, follow his foot prints. Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi proved to be more hawkish and hardliner with neighbors including Nepal. It was during the time of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi as prime ministers, India twice imposed economic sanction against Nepal due to which Nepalese people had to suffer enormously. This is a testament of the fact that Indian Congress was always conservative with Nepal. But non-Congress governments in India have tried to improve relations with Nepal and win confidence of the Nepalese people. When Morarji Desai of Janata Party was elected as the first non-Congress government in New Delhi, there had been some initiatives for better relations with Nepal based on mutual equality. However, this government lived short and the entire efforts to change policy and improve relations with Nepal did not practically materialize.

In 1989, India under Congress Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi imposed another sanction on Nepal in the wake of Nepal’s purchase of some military equipments and weapons from China for the Nepalese Army. The sanction was lifted after non-congress government of VP Singh was formed in New Delhi. Similarly, another non-Congress Prime Minister of India IK Gujral, too, was soft with Nepal but he, too, had to go out of office within a short period. These are some of the testimonies of how Congress governments often tried to squeeze Nepal whereas non-Congress governments in New Delhi always tried to be liberal.

Under all Congress governments, bureaucracy and agency people had upper hand and played dominant role in handling relations with Nepal which was one of the main reasons for the deficit of trust between Nepal and India. Now Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Narendra Modi is leading yet another non-Congress strong government in New Delhi, the result of which has already been visible in the relations with India’s neighbors including Nepal. Modi seems to be effortful in narrow this trust deficit and create an atmosphere of goodwill and trust with the neighbors. Soon after he was chosen as the Prime Minister by his party after victory in the parliamentary election, he invited SAARC leaders to his inaugural ceremony, which is a gesture for normalizing and improving relations with neighbors. This gesture is also being translated into practice slowly. The recent visit to Nepal and gesture of partnership and cooperation he has shown is the manifestation of the fact that Modi means business or he would do what he says and says what he can do. In the two-day visit, Narendra Modi has won enormous goodwill of the Nepalese people and also created great optimism for better relations and meaningful cooperation for mutual benefit of both Nepal and India.

Modi and his government appear to be trying to correct the past mistakes and bring India’s neighborhood policy back on right tract. Nepal had been and is always susceptible to India while signing any new deal particularly on issues pertaining to harnessing and sharing water resources. Already tricked in Koshi and Gandaki projects, Nepalese people want signing of a new deal with India only after thorough public debate and discussion on its pros and cons. Only recently, the proposal concerning the power trade deal put forth in haste by India had once again made Nepalese people more susceptible which drew widespread flak in Nepal. This proposal had been sent by India before Narendra Modi’s government was formed and it was the making of the previous Congress Government led by Dr Manmohan Singh. Sensing widespread and strong indigestion of the Nepalese people on some provisions of the proposed power trade draft, Modi government withdrew it calling for a new proposal from Nepal. Similarly, there had been media report that India had proposed signing in the border strip map that sought to legitimize Indian encroachment into Nepal’s territories in more than 60 points.  On this issue too, the two countries agreed to set up joint border working group to finalize and settle the border dispute. Since Modi and his government did not press for signing on the strip map and agreed to redraw the map only after the thorough homework on the field by the technical team of both the countries, it, too, can be dubbed as a positive move for better relations between Nepal and India.

If Narendra Modi is really desirous to win confidence and trust of the Nepalese people, he has to translate his promises into action, for which all old unequal treaties and agreements including  the 1950 treaty that were not in Nepal’s interest should be annulled and  new treaties based on mutual interest of both countries need to be concluded. The most pressing issue that has created trust deficit between Nepal and India is the water resource or hydro power development. Similarly, Modi has promised to start the construction of Pancheswar project, which is yet another positive aspect of his visit. Even in the past, such promises had been made from Indian side but it never materialized for more than 17 years. The Treaty on Integrated Development of Mahakali River was signed by in February 1996, which came into effect in June 1997. The delay in the construction of this mega project was due to India’s lackluster attitude. Thus, India has to take initiative for early start of the construction of Pancheswar project, which would create an atmosphere of trust for bilateral cooperation.

Again on power trade agreement (PTA), it should not be linked with individual power (hydro-power project) development agreement (PDA). The PTA is an agreement to be signed between the two governments for power trade whereas PDA is the agreement to be signed between Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) and the individual company willing to construct a new hydro-power project. Rumors are that India is pressing for linking the PTA with the PDA of Upper Karnali project to be constructed by an Indian company. This raises question on the intention of the Indian government. 

Nepal has huge potential of hydro power development in which investors from different countries may be interested. The attempt of linking PTA with individual project to be constructed by an Indian company and its willing to buy the electricity produced only by Indian companies makes clear Indian intention to have monopoly on Nepal’s hydro power. This means that India may not be willing to buy power produced from projects built by companies of third countries. So far India is being billed as the sole market for Nepal’s electricity and if India refuses to buy electricity produced from companies of the third countries, it will definitely discourage foreign direct investment in Nepal’s hydro-power sector. This is a calculated and well thought out design of India to squeeze Nepal. If Modi is genuinely liberal and wants to correct the past mistakes to create atmosphere of trust between Nepal and India, he has to come forward to enter into PTA with all options open for Nepal. Bangladesh is also willing to buy electricity from Nepal but it requires a transmission line that has to go through India as Nepal and Bangladesh do not share border. In such a case, too, India is required to demonstrate liberal attitude and allow Nepal to export power to Bangladesh through India. Similarly, China may also be interested to buy electricity from Nepal as Tibet Autonomous Region of China is in need of more power for which Nepal could be the best source country. So all these options need to be kept open so that Nepal can attract FDI from other countries in its hydro power sector and sell power to other countries, as well. Nepal has always been a good neighbor to both China and India and is committed not to harm the interest of none of these two neighbors. China has reciprocated and has been selflessly contributing to Nepal’s development. Now Modi’s India is expected to learn from China’s diplomacy especially in dealing with neighbors including Nepal.

As Narednra Modi paid two-day visit to Nepal, some Western and other media have analyzed this visit as an attempt of India’s new leadership to boost New Delhi’s influence in a neighborhood increasingly wooed by Beijing through its quiet and development diplomacy. This analysis may be correct and otherwise. But it depends on the attitude, role and policy of new Indian leadership. If Narendra Modi’s India corrects the old mistakes and flawed Nepal policy and deals with Nepal on the basis of mutual equality and mutual interest, it will definitely mark a beginning of new chapter in the history of Nepal-India bilateral relations. Narendra Modi has definitely set a positive tone but it has to be translated into action. If Modi does what he has promised, Nepalese people will always remember and regard him with high esteem as a great friend and well-wisher of Nepal. But this all will depend on his action.