Can Nepal Seize Geopolitical Opportunity?

 Yuba Nath Lamsal

The 33rd US president Harry Truman, in an address to a joint session of Congress (parliament) on March 12, 1947, said “At the present moment in world history, nearly every nation must choose between alternative ways of life. The choice is too often not a free one”.  He highlighted the geopolitical compulsion and reality of that time, with which US foreign policy priorities and approaches were shaped and dictated. Geopolitics is the study of the relationship between politics and geographical conditions based on which a particular country or countries adopt policy and strategy to assert position on the global or regional issues. 

It is to do with intermingling of geography and other dynamics like history, economics, politics, demographic nature, culture, military capability and recently technology. All nations are sovereign and are, in principle, free to make their own choices in policy formulation. But nations’ choices are often dictated by geopolitical compulsions. In the international relations, the nature of power is always imperial. The more powerful the country is, the more imperial ambition it tends to possess. This has been the nature and behaviour of powers right from the beginning of civilisation. Small and weaker countries must, therefore, take cognizance of this inherent character of big powers while dealing with the community of nations. 

Geopolitical determinants

If a country adopts foreign policy decisions duly taking the geopolitical determinants and inherent character of powers in mind, the country definitely can have an edge over others but it may land in a soup once a country or the government fails to understand this while making foreign policy priorities and decisions. It, thus, depends on the wit and will of those in the helms of foreign policy conduct whether to turn the geopolitical compulsion and situation into advantageous position or sink in the ugly rivalry of big powers.

Geography is a permanent and unchangeable feature while other geopolitical dynamics keep on changing. Geopolitical focus, thus, shifts with the change of different dynamics. Until the middle of the 20th century, the centre of global geopolitical pivot was Europe, which shifted to American continent after the World War II. With the dawn of the 21st century, the global geopolitical pivot has shifted to Asia, thanks to the rise of Asian powers mainly China and India in the global landscape.

China has already emerged as the second largest economy and poised to be the largest one in near future. India is currently the fifth largest economy and a fourth military power. Asia in general and Indo-pacific region in particular accounts for close to half of the total global GDP and also nearly 50 per cent of global population. If one seeks to dominate the world, it has to first control Asia. In the present context of Asia’s phenomenal growth on multiple fronts, one cannot understand the world without understanding Asia. So goes with the geopolitical and strategic manoeuvring. Asia, thus, has been a pivot of global geopolitical and strategic contestation. International powers are, therefore, rolling up their sleeves to have strategic upper hand in the region.  

Big powers are scrambling to enlarge their presence and influence of various kinds in Asia and the pacific region or the Indo-Pacific region. The general tendency of the principal geopolitical players in this scenario is self-fulfilling for which they try to take countries of the region into their fold and play against the rival. Thus, Asia has grown as a key theatre of geopolitical rivalry and conflict between powers. Indo-Pacific region is, thus, getting heavily militarised, thanks largely to the bid for greater and better strategic leverage in the region in which the United States, Russia and China are the principal contenders. 

Since Russia is preoccupied in Ukraine war following Moscow’s unilateral and unprovoked invasion over a sovereign neighbour, United States and China are the key players in the geopolitical race in Asia while other powers are simply behaving like satellites of either of the two key contenders giving rise to the risk of conflict breakout and flare up in the region.  Different kinds and nature of alliance, groups and sub-groups have already been created in the region perusing the countries to join these alliances or groups. Even hinterland countries like Nepal, Mongolia and others are being coaxed and cuddled by international powers to bring into their strategic fold. 

Nepal at the moment appears to be in the epicentre of Asia’s geopolitical arms twisting. The flurry of visits by officials from different countries and their Nepal-focused activities are illustrative of Nepal’s geopolitical vitality. Since the dawn of 2023, two important US officials have already visited Nepal within a period of three weeks and some more are in the offing, while Indian foreign secretary was here just the other day. British Defence secretary and EU officials, too, came for official visit in 2023 and trip of some officials from China, too, may be in the pipeline. This geopolitical rivalry of big powers and Nepal’s vital location can be both opportunity as well as challenge for Nepal.

National interest 

In the realist international order, no country is permanent friend or permanent enemy. What is permanent is the national interest. Each country devises its policy and priorities taking its national interest at the core. The present geopolitical situation can be and should be turned into our advantage for which a wise, mature and pragmatic foreign policy approach and handlings are necessary. If we make slightest of the mistake and miscalculation, it can lead to catastrophe. Nepal does not have luxury to align with one country or power at the expense of other.  Neither our foreign policy nor our geopolitical reality allows us to do so. 

This is the time of tightrope walking in the world of diplomacy which requires Nepal to act and move cautiously and wisely in a mature and pragmatic manner. As China’s leader late Deng Xiaoping said, ‘it does not matter whether a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice’. Deng said so in the context of political ideologies, but it is applicable in the domain of diplomacy, too. Thus, Nepal needs to seize the opportunities created by the present geopolitical ambience based on our stated foreign policy with foreign policy bottom-line —Amity with All and Enmity to None. 

 (The author is former ambassador and former chief editor of this daily. lamsalyubanath@gmail.com)

This was published in The Rising Nepal on February 15, 2023.

https://risingnepaldaily.com/news/22785