Cost Of Strategic Miscalculations

 Yuba Nath Lamsal

After the World War II, US president Franklin Roosevelt, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin And British Prime Minister Winston Churchill met in the resort town of Yalta , presently Ukrainian territory, in February 1945 to chart out the future of Europe. Europe was cut like a birthday cake based on the US and Soviet sphere of influence. Countries were divided and families were separated. Berlin Wall was the symbol of this division. But another American president Ronald Reagan pointing out to the Berlin Wall made an appealing speech in February 1987 and asked Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to tear down the wall.  That marked the beginning of the end of the post-World War II European order.

Europe‘s map was redrawn. Germany was reunified, Soviet Union and Yugoslavia were disintegrated. A new Europe emerged. In the words of Fareed Zakaria, “the Berlin Wall wasn’t the only barrier to fall after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War but traditional barrier to the flow of money, trade, people and ideas also fell”. Its repercussions went far and wide across the world. Bipolar world order collapsed which was replaced by the unipolar order in which the United States rose to be the sole dominant global power and arbiter to write the rules of the game in the international system. Russia was rendered into a mere regional power with almost no role in the global system. 

Paradigm shift

However, things started to change with the advent of the 21st century and a great paradigm shift has taken place in the international geopolitics. Russian president Vladimir Putin once said, “disintegration of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20 the century” and he is avowedly trying to regain Russia’s past glory as a global power. Similarly, with the rise of Xi Jinping in the political helm of affairs in Beijing, China, too, has risen as a principal global power challenging the United States militarily, economically and technologically.  

United States has seen the rise of Russia and China as a formidable challenge. Pentagon authorities castigate Russia as an ‘acute threat’ whereas China a ‘systemic threat’ with capability of challenging the United States politically, economically, militarily, technologically and diplomatically. United States, is, thus, chalking out multiple strategies and tactics to contain and weaken its principal rivals both in Europe and Asia. 

Big powers always clamber to make bigger gains out of the developments and events taking place in the world. US and NATO are moving eastward in Europe. Russia considers Eastern Europe as its sphere of influence. Moscow is weary of NATO’s eastward enlargement in Europe. Ukraine’s decision to enter into NATO’s umbrella infuriated Moscow and Putin considered it as an open invitation to American and western troops at its doorstep. This led or misled Moscow to invade Ukraine. 

With Russia-Ukraine war dragging on for more than a year, it is being used by big powers as a geopolitical weapon against their rivals. Big powers are, therefore, trying to extract economic, strategic and geopolitical gains out of it. While the United State has taken Ukraine’s side and is mobilising monetary, military and moral support to Ukraine, China and India have apparently declared their neutral stance. But their decision, too, is guided more by their own national and geopolitical interests rather than by the just cause. 

These powers want Ukraine war to prolong further so that they can reap more benefits. Washington wants Russia to remain entangled in Ukraine war so that Moscow may not come out of it and may not be able to look further west in Europe. The war will bleed Russian economy weakening Moscow’s overall strength which will give an opportune moment for Washington and NATO to strengthen and enlarge their position further east in Europe. China is looking this as an opportunity to make further inroad into European market, while India is benefiting from buying Russian oil at much cheaper price. 

In this strategic and geopolitical game, Joe Biden was in Europe last week in an effort to embolden Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy  and mobilise support of European countries for Ukraine, while China’s top diplomat Wang Yee also made a tour of different European countries seeking to make its geopolitical and economic inroad into Europe. While Biden vowed not to give in a single inch of NATO land, Wang Yee spoke of peaceful and diplomatic negotiation to end the Ukraine war. India too is insisting on the end of war through negotiation. 

Both US and China are important countries for Europe. Europe cannot ignore both of them. United States, being the largest military power of NATO, is the principal guarantor of European security and EU is China’s largest trading partner. China’s economic investment and engagement in Europe are ever growing. While US interest and engagement in Europe is more strategic, China’s engagement is guided more by economic interest. 

The US seeks to check Putin’s assertive Russia in Europe and China in Asia-Pacific region. Washington is strengthening the already existing alliance system, making new alliances and trying to bring more Asian countries especially in South Asia and East Asia to its fold to contain China. Beijing wants US to get engaged more in Europe so that Washington’s resources and attention are diverted elsewhere from Asia. Guided by these motives both US and China want Ukraine-Russia war to linger on. 

Ramification of war

Whatever the reasons and logics, war cannot be justified. War is enemy of civilisation and it inflicts humanity generations. The ramifications of war go beyond national borders. We have seen countries ravaged by wars which have not come out of it for years. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and several African countries are some of the examples, which were caught in wars due to strategic miscalculation and mishandling of foreign policy.

Ukraine is another example. But at the same time aggression and invasion in other country by any name and excuse is objectionable, which Russia needs to take into note. But other powers should not try to take benefit out of war but make sincere efforts to end conflict through peaceful means in which is the interest of all. 

(The author is former ambassador and former chief editor of this daily. lamsalyubanath@gmail.com)

 

-This was published in The Rising Nepal on March 1, 2023

https://risingnepaldaily.com/news/23332