Political Crisis deepens
By Yuba Nath Lamsal
The country is now in the biggest political crisis since the Jana Andolan II. The UCPN-Maoist, the main opposition party in parliament, has waged a nationwide protest seemingly to oust the present Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal from the seat of power and lead the next government. But it is not so easy for the Maoists to pull down the present government that is enjoying strong backing from 22 parties that constitute comfortable majority in parliament.
It is against this background that Prime Minister Nepal appears to be fully confident of his majority in parliament and has repeatedly challenged the Maoists to prove their majority in the House. In the present situation as no political party has the majority in parliament, the number plays crucial role. It would be difficult for the Maoists to have the magic 301 number as no party has been forthcoming to support the Maoists. Thus, the chances for the Maoists to form the new government appear to be very slim at the moment. The Maoists also have understood this situation and are weighing different options. Prachanda’s recent remarks that his party was protesting not for going to power but for ensuring civilian supremacy and facilitating the peace process are, perhaps, the realization of this grim reality.
If the Maoists want to lead the government, they must win confidence of at least one major party because they do not have the 301 magic number in parliament. No major party at the moment is in position of supporting the Maoists. Nepali Congress is the architect of the present and it has already come up with official version that there is no alternative to the present government. The CPN-UML definitely does not want to pull down its own government. So the Maoists have to take several other parties’ support to prove its majority in the House. So far as other parties are concerned, none of the parties, except the Upendra Yadav-led Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF), is prepared to align with the Maoists. With support only from the Yadav-led MJF, the Maoists would not have majority. Even if Prime Minister resigns, the Maoists would not be able to form the government in the present political equation.
But the present government, too, is in moral crisis. It has been unable to take the opposition party into confidence and ensure the smooth functioning of parliamentary procedures. The parliament has been obstructed continuously for almost two months. If parliament does not resume its usual job for another two weeks, the budget for the current fiscal year would be affected. As its consequence, the government would not be able to spend the money from the exchequer. In such an eventuality, there would be two options left with the Prime Minister. One is to step down to facilitate other to lead the government and the other one is to prorogue the present session of parliament and bring the budget through ordinance. The Prime Minister and the ruling parties would definitely choose the second option. This option is possible but is not morally correct to bring the budget through ordinance because the fiscal bill was already under discussion in the House.
The other grim reality, you may call it irony, that the Prime Minister getting stronger support from other coalition partners than from his own party. Already mired in a faction fighting, there are some leaders in the UML who do not want Madhav Nepal to emerge stronger. Chairman of the CPN-UML, Jhalanath Khanal, himself is aspiring to lead the government. In a number of occasions, Khanal has said that he was prepared to take the responsibility of the Prime Minister if the situation demands.
Khanal’s desire for leading the government is not illogical as he is directly elected from the people. But the choice of Jhalanath Khanal to lead the government would be possible only when the Maoists join the government under his leadership. The Nepali Congress and some other small parties would not be comfortable to back Khanal as the Prime Minister because of his pro-Maoists posture. In the present political context, someone who he is decisive, daring and also moderate and capable of getting support of others is needed. Khanal lacks that quality.
Madhav Nepal was viewed as a pragmatic politician with high morality. Within CPN-UML and also outside, Madhav Nepal is regarded as the liberal leader. It is this image that he became of the longest-serving general secretary of the party. His image as a man of moral authority was created when he resigned from the post of party’s general secretary after his own defeat from two constituencies and poor performance of his party in the Constituent Assembly election. Despite this, one thing is clear that if Madhav Nepal cannot forge consensus, none of the leaders in the UML party and even in the Nepali Congress, barring Girija Prasad Koirala, would be able to take all the political forces together.
But his image as a man of morality was tarnished once he went to power. He should have rejected the offer of Prime Minister and concentrated more in consolidating the party if he wanted to maintain that image. The Prime Minister’s decision to promote foreign minister Sujata Koirala’s to deputy Prime Minister under Girija Prasad Koirala’s pressure has eroded his moral authority. By doing this, he has also lost the trust of a faction of the Nepali Congress.
Under these circumstances, the solution of the present political deadlock may not be found easily and early. The country then would continue to be mired in the political confrontation and crisis. This would delay the peace process and constitution making process. In the present context, unity and consensus among at least three major parties is necessary to pass the constitution. But parties are so far apart that the chances of consensus are very remote, let alone formation of a national government. If the political parties do not dispel their differences, it may not be possible to write the constitution and conclude the peace process in time.
Given the attitude of the parties, it seems that they are not interested to complete the constitution writing and peace process. Once the constitution is written in time, the validity of the Constituent Assembly would be over. In that eventuality, the general election will have to be conducted. But political parties are not sure of their position and strength and are, therefore afraid of going to the election. Thus, they want to prolongue the crisis so that they would extend tenure of the Constituent Assembly by amending the Interim Constitution or seek other alternative arrangement so that they would continue to enjoy power.
Although the Maoists are the largest party, they are not sure that they would maintain the present position if the elections were held. Nepali Congress, too, is afraid of going to polls. The fear of the Nepali Congress is that its performance would be poorer than the present position because the Maoists have not allowed other parties to function in the rural areas. The CPN-UML is also paranoid because of the shocking result of the Constituent Assembly election. Projected as a winner prior to the election, the UML was reduced to the third position. There are no bases for the UML to improve its position if the general elections were held in next one year or so. Moreover, the vote bank of the UML has already been snatched away by the Maoists.
Thus, the political parties are not interested to complete the peace process early despite their rhetoric. In this design, all parties are unanimous and have consensus. So the parties’ ill-motive is sure to push the country to further instability, uncertainty and chaos. If it so happens, the country would definitely be a failed state.
The country is now in the biggest political crisis since the Jana Andolan II. The UCPN-Maoist, the main opposition party in parliament, has waged a nationwide protest seemingly to oust the present Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal from the seat of power and lead the next government. But it is not so easy for the Maoists to pull down the present government that is enjoying strong backing from 22 parties that constitute comfortable majority in parliament.
It is against this background that Prime Minister Nepal appears to be fully confident of his majority in parliament and has repeatedly challenged the Maoists to prove their majority in the House. In the present situation as no political party has the majority in parliament, the number plays crucial role. It would be difficult for the Maoists to have the magic 301 number as no party has been forthcoming to support the Maoists. Thus, the chances for the Maoists to form the new government appear to be very slim at the moment. The Maoists also have understood this situation and are weighing different options. Prachanda’s recent remarks that his party was protesting not for going to power but for ensuring civilian supremacy and facilitating the peace process are, perhaps, the realization of this grim reality.
If the Maoists want to lead the government, they must win confidence of at least one major party because they do not have the 301 magic number in parliament. No major party at the moment is in position of supporting the Maoists. Nepali Congress is the architect of the present and it has already come up with official version that there is no alternative to the present government. The CPN-UML definitely does not want to pull down its own government. So the Maoists have to take several other parties’ support to prove its majority in the House. So far as other parties are concerned, none of the parties, except the Upendra Yadav-led Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF), is prepared to align with the Maoists. With support only from the Yadav-led MJF, the Maoists would not have majority. Even if Prime Minister resigns, the Maoists would not be able to form the government in the present political equation.
But the present government, too, is in moral crisis. It has been unable to take the opposition party into confidence and ensure the smooth functioning of parliamentary procedures. The parliament has been obstructed continuously for almost two months. If parliament does not resume its usual job for another two weeks, the budget for the current fiscal year would be affected. As its consequence, the government would not be able to spend the money from the exchequer. In such an eventuality, there would be two options left with the Prime Minister. One is to step down to facilitate other to lead the government and the other one is to prorogue the present session of parliament and bring the budget through ordinance. The Prime Minister and the ruling parties would definitely choose the second option. This option is possible but is not morally correct to bring the budget through ordinance because the fiscal bill was already under discussion in the House.
The other grim reality, you may call it irony, that the Prime Minister getting stronger support from other coalition partners than from his own party. Already mired in a faction fighting, there are some leaders in the UML who do not want Madhav Nepal to emerge stronger. Chairman of the CPN-UML, Jhalanath Khanal, himself is aspiring to lead the government. In a number of occasions, Khanal has said that he was prepared to take the responsibility of the Prime Minister if the situation demands.
Khanal’s desire for leading the government is not illogical as he is directly elected from the people. But the choice of Jhalanath Khanal to lead the government would be possible only when the Maoists join the government under his leadership. The Nepali Congress and some other small parties would not be comfortable to back Khanal as the Prime Minister because of his pro-Maoists posture. In the present political context, someone who he is decisive, daring and also moderate and capable of getting support of others is needed. Khanal lacks that quality.
Madhav Nepal was viewed as a pragmatic politician with high morality. Within CPN-UML and also outside, Madhav Nepal is regarded as the liberal leader. It is this image that he became of the longest-serving general secretary of the party. His image as a man of moral authority was created when he resigned from the post of party’s general secretary after his own defeat from two constituencies and poor performance of his party in the Constituent Assembly election. Despite this, one thing is clear that if Madhav Nepal cannot forge consensus, none of the leaders in the UML party and even in the Nepali Congress, barring Girija Prasad Koirala, would be able to take all the political forces together.
But his image as a man of morality was tarnished once he went to power. He should have rejected the offer of Prime Minister and concentrated more in consolidating the party if he wanted to maintain that image. The Prime Minister’s decision to promote foreign minister Sujata Koirala’s to deputy Prime Minister under Girija Prasad Koirala’s pressure has eroded his moral authority. By doing this, he has also lost the trust of a faction of the Nepali Congress.
Under these circumstances, the solution of the present political deadlock may not be found easily and early. The country then would continue to be mired in the political confrontation and crisis. This would delay the peace process and constitution making process. In the present context, unity and consensus among at least three major parties is necessary to pass the constitution. But parties are so far apart that the chances of consensus are very remote, let alone formation of a national government. If the political parties do not dispel their differences, it may not be possible to write the constitution and conclude the peace process in time.
Given the attitude of the parties, it seems that they are not interested to complete the constitution writing and peace process. Once the constitution is written in time, the validity of the Constituent Assembly would be over. In that eventuality, the general election will have to be conducted. But political parties are not sure of their position and strength and are, therefore afraid of going to the election. Thus, they want to prolongue the crisis so that they would extend tenure of the Constituent Assembly by amending the Interim Constitution or seek other alternative arrangement so that they would continue to enjoy power.
Although the Maoists are the largest party, they are not sure that they would maintain the present position if the elections were held. Nepali Congress, too, is afraid of going to polls. The fear of the Nepali Congress is that its performance would be poorer than the present position because the Maoists have not allowed other parties to function in the rural areas. The CPN-UML is also paranoid because of the shocking result of the Constituent Assembly election. Projected as a winner prior to the election, the UML was reduced to the third position. There are no bases for the UML to improve its position if the general elections were held in next one year or so. Moreover, the vote bank of the UML has already been snatched away by the Maoists.
Thus, the political parties are not interested to complete the peace process early despite their rhetoric. In this design, all parties are unanimous and have consensus. So the parties’ ill-motive is sure to push the country to further instability, uncertainty and chaos. If it so happens, the country would definitely be a failed state.
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