Regime change in Egypt



Yuba Nath Lamsal
Egypt, home of ancient civilization in the North Africa, saw some convulsive events last week leading to a military coup that ousted democratically elected President Mohammed Morsi. This week’s dramatic events in Egypt and subsequent ouster of the legitimate government will have far-reaching impact not only in the Middle East and North Africa but also in the entire world.
The army coup was triggered by the popular unrests on the streets and squares of Cairo and elsewhere demanding end to the rule of Moslem Brotherhood led by Morsi, who was accused by the opposition parties of trying to Islamization of Egyptian society and patronizing corruption and misrule. But Morsi’s party and his followers have dismissed the allegation. Instead, the Morsi supporters seem to be defiant against the military move and claimed that Morsi continues to be the legitimate president of Egypt, for which they would fight until their last breath.
The tone of defiance of the Morsi supporters has already been reflected on the streets of Cairo. The mood in Cairo and another city like Alexandria seem to be bizarre as clashes between the two groups have already been reported in which several people have been killed. The situation has not yet subsided which is indicative of the fact that Egypt may see more bloodshed and confrontation, which may turn into an ugly civil war, if tension further escalates. In such an eventuality, the military-backed regime will have tough time not only to justify the ouster of Morsi regime but also to ensure greater stability in the region.
Many people especially the Western media have dubbed the recent turns of event in Cairo as the people’s rejection of Moslem Brotherhood’s misrule and a second revolution for a more democratic society and reforms in Egypt. It may be a popular rejection of the Morsi’s handling of several key issues that have direct bearing on the life of the people like rising unemployment rate and deteriorating social and economic conditions of the people.  The popular unrest is not the second revolution but a continuation of the  revolution that had started in this land of the Nile almost two years ago that had toppled the previous Hosni Mubarak’s dictatorship. Since Mubarak was ousted from power and an election was held in which Moslem Brotherhood won a majority, paving the way to the formation of Morsi-led government a year ago, which had been taken by some external forces with indignation because of the background and tract record of the party that was installed on power in Cairo. Moselm Brotherhood is a political party/group influenced and guided by the Islamic principles, which may be incompatible with the basic and universal principle of modern democracy.
The unrest had subsided last year following the ouster of the Mubarak regime and holding of a new election. Egyptian people had high expectations on the new elected government and had expected that it would work hard to effect solution to the numerous problems in Egypt. However, the change of the government was not the solution the people had sought. People did not seek the mere regime change but wanted a substantial change and improvement in the life of ordinary people. In other words, it was a revolution both for civil and democratic right but also a revolution for bread and butter. But the new government proved its utter failure in both of these tasks. Instead, it continued to impose, as was the case in the previous regime, the ruthless capitalist model prescribed by some western powers.
The current situation of Egypt is precarious. The economic crisis is deepening every day causing a great deal of miseries and hardship on the life of the people especially belonging to the lower strata of the society and the working population. The unemployment rate is high and it continues to rise. Inflation is skyrocketing every day. The Foreign reserve has plummeted to a record low in Egypt’s history. The IMF has issued its own precondition to get rid of the economic crisis, which are likely to add further burden to the already impoverished people. Under pressure from the IMF, the Morsi regime had cut public expenditures, laid off government workers, ended or sharply curtailed subsidies on fuel, and devalued the Egyptian currency. This angered the people which provided ground for the military and the dissidents to topple his regime.
Thus, the unrest was not a new phenomenon but a continuation of the old revolt against reactionary and rightist policies that had created two societies in Egypt. In other words, the driving forces behind the upsurge are the contradictions of the political and economic system that has produced financial parasitism, social inequality, poverty and the breakdown of democratic rule.
In Egypt, mass uprisings have toppled individual rulers and destabilized the political elites, but they have not succeeded in overthrowing the system in which military is the real power and the ruler. History is witness that the change of individual leaders has brought no change in the life of the people anywhere in the world. If real and tangible change has to be brought about in the life of the people, there must be systemic change in which pro-people regime will be established with pro-people agendas. In the case of earlier change of political changes in Egypt, only the players changed but the game remained unaffected. This was the prime factor behind the recent popular upsurge against the Morsi regime, which was hijacked by the military in the form of its takeover.
Given the present situation, people’s mood and political superstructure, no significant changes are expected even if fresh elections are held. The Moslem Brotherhood is a political party that believes in Islamic fundamentalism. As Egypt is a predominantly a Muslim majority country, Moslem Brotherhood has strong base in the society. If elections are held again in a strictly free and fair manner, it is more likely that Moslem Brotherhood would definitely have strong presence and say in Egypt’s politics. Similarly, military is the powerful institution in Egypt which has, in one way or the other, has been role in politics and power. Throughout Egypt’s history, military has been the ruler under civilian façade only exception during the Morsi regime. The military is not likely to let any government to remain in power for long unless the government toes its line and pursues its agendas.
The fall of Morsi regime in Egypt has given both positive and negative message. It is good because a popular movement toppled Islamist regime. It is bad because it produced no better alternative. Morsi’s ouster did not bring about positive results in the politics of Egypt. Instead, it invited yet another dictatorship—the military rule— which would make difficult for people of Egypt to get rid of it in immediate future. It means Egypt has once again returned to an era of dictatorship, which is yet another paradox. It is likely to invite more resentment and antagonism of the people because this political change was not aimed at bringing about changes in the life of the people but intended to further consolidating power of the military and the generals.
Egypt is at the center of the Arab World and developments in Egypt will definitely have repercussion in the entire Middle East and North Africa. The world is watching closely the events in Cairo. Already marred by poverty, unemployment and sluggish growth, Egypt may see further deterioration if confrontation and conflict flare up. It would be wise if the new leadership handles the matters delicately and makes serious efforts to address the genuine problems of the people. In the modern era of 21st century, military dictatorship under any façade and with any face may not convince the people.  Thus, it would do well the military leadership in Egypt gives up its desire, if any, to hold political power and hold genuine election so that the people would choose their representatives to rule their country.

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